Monday July 27th MLB Matchup Graphs

These graphs should help break down some of the pitching matchups and provide some useful info for your bets. Five games are previewed here. What do all these graphs even mean? I break it down below

The team stat data is based on performance from June 22 to July 22, so recent performances.

Pitcher data is based on performance throughout the year.

Bullpen ERA is updated daily.

What is WRC+?  Interpretation: higher values = greater run likelihood. 100 is the league average.

An opponent’s K percent rate, Hard Hit percent rate, Groundball percent rate stats are based on the opposing pitcher’s handedness, meaning, those team stats depend on if the starter is a RHP or LHP.

Negative Values: 

For pitcher: has lower hard hit rate(doesn’t get his as hard) /groundball rate/ K rate than league median (percent). 

For opponent: has lower hard hit rate(don’t hit hard) /groundball rate/K rate than league median (percent). 

Positive Values: 

For pitcher: has higher hard hit rate (they get smacked) /groundball rate/K rate than league median (percent). 

For opponent: has higher hard hit rate(they hit the ball hard) /groundball rate/K rate than league median (percent). 

Merrill Kelly does not induce groundballs, does not K batters, and gets hit hard. Pirates (since June 22) hit the ball hard, but also K more and hit into more groundballs than the league median vs RHP.