NFL SZN Long Squares: QB Games Started Edition

The "Regular Season Games Started" NFL season long tab isn't particularly sexy compared to yard/TDs and so on. But that doesn't mean there aren't opportunities to be had. Here, I'll break these down a bit and discuss some potential outcomes. 

Disclaimer: I make these arguments largely ignoring the potential for injury, which are unpredictable. Any injury can doom a square in one snap.

Let's start with Kyler Murray in Minnesota.  Murray was released by Arizona after being shut down toward the end of that team's atrocious 2025 season. He signed with the Vikings on a vet minimum while still being paid by the Cardinals. The key feature here is he has a no tag clause for 2027, meaning, he can enter free agency. This provides him with an incentive to overperform in what is a contract year. Last week, he was officially coronated with the starter position. This, coupled with the fact he is now coached by an offensive guru, makes me think he can shine in Minnesota when juxtaposed to Arizona (where HC Jonathan Gannon was a defensive specialist). 

I think over 13.5 starts is more likely than not.  It is a tough schedule, but with KOC, the Vikes might manage to stay above water long enough to cover his 14-game line, avoiding a mid-season the QB carousel. 

The second square is Fernando Mendoza. The over 8.5 starts is a high line but achievable. First, the Raiders are still not a good team in general. While they are putting pieces together, like with the electric Ashton Jeanty, their situation is a lot to handle for any new head coach in this historically inept organization. This is especially true when going against the likes of Denver's suffocating defense, the Mahomes-led Chiefs looking for a bounce back year, and a Jim Harbaugh coached Charger team with new OC Mike McDaniel (who’s got it better than them?). Kirk Cousins fills in the QB role now, but he's gone from being the Vikings unquestioned leader to a league journeyman. It's not clear who you will get with 2026 Kirk. The schedule is also a grueling one, particularly in October. 

It's not unlikely the team drops to 2-5 (even 1-6 if the Saints take a leap forward this year) when November rolls around. A loss to the Jets in that first week of November, I think, would all but clinch Mendoza becoming the starter the final 9 games. If this line moves up to 9.5, I'd be more inclined to avoid it, but at 8.5, it's worth a shot on the over.

So far, the squares arguments here are based on reasonable theory. I can't come up with that for Shedeur Sanders. There are simply too many open questions. To start, the Browns QB competition is still in flux. Watson is owed significant sums of money, which may influence the decision.  At the same time, Monken has been effusive about Sanders.

And let's not forget how excited he was about the prospect of the Ravens, his former team, potentially drafting him.

Even if Watson wins the competition, like many expect, is he going to stay healthy given his history? Does Monken put him on a short leash if he struggles? After all, Monken's survival as head coach is also on the line and naturally linked to his QB play. He's incentivized to adjust quickly. No play here is worthwhile.

This one seems odd to me. On the one hand, Allar is recovering from injury and sitting at the last of four QB seats in Pittsburgh. At the same time, McCarthy made sure to say one should not read too much into the first released depth chart. Either way, hard to see the new toy, which people love to note is 6’5 and 230 lbs, gets starter playing time when Mason Rudolph is on staff, an experienced vet that can get a win in a pinch. If the season is lost early and Pittsburgh is seemingly out of the playoff hunt, I don't think Rodgers just stops playing if this is his final season (as expected). He'll go down swinging knowing those are his last days playing in the National Football League. The 1.5 line is low, but I would be surprised to see Allar play even once as a starter, or in any capacity, for that matter. Like noted before, injury changes all if one afflicts Rodgers early in the year. In all honesty, the play on this square may be no play at all if you’re understandably worried about a 42-year-old signal caller.

Notable mention, 3.5 starts for Carson Beck feels way too low for an Arizona Cardinal team that understands this is a throwaway year. They have to see what he has to offer in real action and for more than three games. The line should be about 6.5. The catch? The square is gone… for now. If it comes back up, could be worth taking unless it is really inflated.