A Better Way to Decide Who Makes the NFL Playoffs

For years now, the NFC South has been a terrible division and there is no other way to say it. They are a combined 12-21 this year. Last season, the combined record was 30-38, with no team being above .500. In 2024, the Bucs saved it from mediocrity going 10-7. In 2023 the division was fine (term used loosely), but in 2022, per usual, it failed to live up to fan expectations. No team had a winning record that year yet again.

The problem here is that the division is simply so bad, and yet, one of them will make the playoffs, winning record or not. This comes in a year the entire NFC North is on fire with no more than 3 losses by any team. The East, granted, is not great, but the West has three contenders including the underperforming Rams and the Super Bowl defending champions. It is hard to argue that any team in the North or West (except Arizona) does not deserve a playoff spot over any team in the South. Not just due to wins and losses, but because ALL of those teams are better than whatever comes out of the South. That is my opinion, of course, and can stand by it. It is not good if, say, some 10-win team in the North or West misses the playoffs for a South division winner if they don't even have a winning record. Side note: see this discussion on the South with Bijan.

At the same time, there has to be some degree of value to winning one’s division. After all, those are the games we look forward to the most: Ravens/Steelers, Cowboys/Giants, Packers/Bears. These are the marquee games on any given week. So, what is the solution? Any division winner gets an auto bid IF they have, at least, a .500 record. In theory, a winning record would be ideal, but it seems that may be too high of a bar for some divisions (including possibly the NFC East which is being saved from irrelevancy by the Giants). This feels like the fairest solution to a problem that has persisted over the past three years. In this tweak, the division winner still gets its home game, once again maintaining the value of the division victory. To be sure, maybe these teams turn it around and moving forward we do have more competitive divisions generally. I also understand counterarguments. The current setup allows for “exciting” and meaningful games late in the year between, for example, 6-9 teams. It is also true that playoff outcomes are not set in stone and upsets happen. Even bad teams can beat great ones when the rubber hits the road.

Still, there is no reason to not make the switch and potentially improve the playoff field with games that fans want to watch in January. This is also not picking on the NFC South, it would obviously apply to every division that fails to perform. Despite the counters, I’d argue this is a modest amendment that asks teams to do the bare minimum. And it puts the teams on notice that they need to step up and actually win games if they want a chance at the tournament.