The Road to Generational MLBSZN Wealth: Volume 3

Let me introduce you to Antoan Richardson. A name that many of you (especially if you’re a Mets fan) have heard brought up in the past year. He is the new Braves 1st base coach and baserunning mastermind who transformed the Mets offense into the league leaders in stolen base percentage in 2025. They led the league at 89.1%, stealing 147 bases and only getting caught 18 times.

That’s a truly insane success rate when you look at the fact that the only team to be caught stealing less was the Tigers, who had the lowest number of steals in the league at just 61. The crown jewel of Richardson’s 2025 work was Juan Soto. He made it a goal to make Soto an asset on the basepaths last year and he did that and more. Soto’s previous career high for single-season steals was 12, and he was coming off of a 2024 season with just 7. His 2025 season ended with a whopping 38 stolen bases on only 42 attempts.

And while Soto was the headliner, it wasn't just him. Francisco Lindor tied his career-high in steals while Tyrone Taylor and Brett Baty set theirs. If guys like Cedric Mullins, Ronny Mauricio, and Jose Siri were in the lineup for more than their combined 119 games they likely could've done the same. But Richardson's aura was felt throughout the offense.

Richardson works his magic with a unique approach on studying tendencies from all angles to find success in the run game. The Braves made a home run hire with him since they’re an offense that pretty badly needs a shakeup. Many have blamed it all on injuries and a lack of health for the Braves over the past few years, and while that was certainly the driving factor, their healthy offense had construction problems as is. 

They were overly reliant on the long ball for far too long. 

That was fine a few years ago, especially when the lineup was able to stay healthy and they got consistent output from the bottom half. But times have changed and something needed to shake with this lineup. Even more so when the guys that are expected to take the leap (like a Michael Harris) are not only not doing that, but are downright pitiful even when given chances in the absence of the goats at the top of the lineup.

An approach that they took knowing the power bats they possessed in Matt Olson and Austin Riley in the middle of the lineup. The problem is that they’ve also counted on a few guys to make the leap (like a Michael Harris) and haven’t gotten the consistency out of them they hoped for. Especially when Acuna and the rest of the lineup haven’t been healthy, it seemed like this offense just had little hope to manufacture many runs.

So they bring in Richardson to help add a fresh new element to the offense. Bring a sense of urgency and aggressiveness to a team that has lacked that in the last few years. I think this will do wonders for this team. Now I also think there’s a ton of value across the board for a lot of steals in this lineup. The big two names are obviously Ronald Acuna and Michael Harris, the fastest guys on the team who will very likely end with the most volume, assuming health. I can’t say a negative word about either of those guys and there’s not really a name you’d give me from the Braves that I’d say no to. But I like one guy a lot better than the both of them.

I want Austin Riley.

That might sound off the wall at first, but I don’t think people realize that Austin Riley isn’t slow. In 2025, his sprint speed was 28.2 ft/sec which ranked in the 73rd percentile of the MLB. 

We all see him as this big body power bat, which still is don’t get me wrong, but he’s much more of an asset on the basepaths with his speed than he’s been able to show in his career so far. You can see on the graphic below that some of names that are around him in sprint speed are guys that all of us would generally consider fast. Between 28 and 28.5 lies Jose Caballero, Taylor Walls, Michael Harris, Xavier Edwards, CJ Abrams, Jakob Marsee, and more. Caballero led the league with 49 SB last year, Abrams had 31, Edwards had 27, you get the point. Riley has the speed to put up numbers on the basepaths, likely not too close to the level of these guys but that’s not what we’re asking for.

I’ll always say this about stolen bases too, there’s nothing I will take at face value more than teams or players talking about concerted efforts to run more. I’d go as far to say that for bettable season long squares, it’s the thing that they are most in control of. If there’s reports out there that a certainin control of. If there are rumors or rumblings about a certain guy looking to steal more bags in a season, more times than not they do.

This one has me rather confident because it hasn’t even come directly from Riley’s mouth. Mark Bowman wrote this article above which I’d recommend checking out for some quotes directly from Richardson and some of the Braves players. In that article not only does he reinforce some numbers that I went over already in terms of Riley’s capability to run, but he also showcases a pair of his teammates’ (Harris and Olson) confidence in him.

The title of the article is pretty much can Austin Riley get 20. Michael Harris starts it off by saying he’s getting 30. Olson co-signs his potential while Richardson kind of brushed it to the side and said maybe it’s a conversation in a few months. I’ll tell you what that makes me think: Richardson knows what he’s here for, as do many of the teams they’ll be facing. Do the smart thing and don’t show any more of your hand than everyone knows will already be shown. Him saying revisit the conversation in July to me also hints at the fact that there will at least be some experimenting with it to begin with, which feels like a given anyway but good to essentially hear.

Riley has had 7 SBs in his career on 12 attempts, with 2 of those SBs and 3 attempts coming last year. That was in only 102 games and with no Richardson present. I think his 2026 projection is mispriced and I want to take advantage of it. If it’s a trap I’ll gladly fall for this bait. He won’t turn into Elly or Chandler Simpson this year, but 2 SBs feels beyond achievable for Riley. 

Obviously injuries (especially if they are lower body/oblique) could do damage to a guy’s SB volume. And the Braves as a whole haven’t been too healthy as a team and neither has Riley himself, but that’s a risk I’m 100% willing to take, especially only needing 2 stolen bags. I typically look at the random stolen base season squares as just funny meme squares but this one is different. This one is green. And it's getting called up to the big leagues. 

Speed demon Austin Riley season.