The Road to Generational MLBSZN Wealth: Volume 2

To me the Kansas City Royals are the most interesting baseball team in 2026. And I’m not alone in that sentiment. There is certainly some love for this team out there this offseason, and I’m right here on that train. The talk of the AL Central last year was the Tigers’ grueling collapse over the second half of the season while the Guardians did what the Guardians always do. Snuck under the radar without garnering any respect and ended up winning the division.

But the Royals weren’t all that bad themselves. They finished 82-80 and that was despite some real struggles in their lineup, especially in the bottom half. Bobby Witt had an 8 fWAR season and Maikel Garcia had a great year himself with a 5.6 fWAR. Everyone else was pretty bad though, which made it kind of impressive that they were above .500 despite that.

The next highest fWAR from a Royals hitter was Vinnie Pasquantino at 1.5. Those three guys were the only above average hitters in the lineup all year in terms of WRC+. Mike Yastrzemski and Carter Jensen were plus adds but were a trade deadline add and 20 game call-up. All this to say the lineup was Bobby, Maikel, the occasional Vinnie/Salvy sighting, and a big black hole elsewhere.

But it begins with Bobby, who is in store for a monster year once again. For Bobby’s standards he had a slight down year last season after a huge 2024. He had 32 HRs and 31 SBs while hitting .332 in 2024. The speed went nowhere as he stole 38 bags in 2025 but the plate production dipped to the tune of 23 HRs and just a .295 average. Add into the equation the weirdest quirk of Witt’s profile, his LHP splits.

He hit .328 against LHP compared to just .287 against RHP which makes perfect sense. But only hit 1 of his 23 HRs against LHP. His power splits have always been somewhat lopsided but never that drastic. 18 of his 70 HRs in his first 3 seasons came against LHP, just under 26% compared to the 4% shown in 2025. And it isn’t like he struggled overall against LHP being that he still hit .328, so that seems like more of an outlier than anything. Bobby should be a more well-rounded hitter in 2026 which will set the tone for the whole lineup.

The Royals pulled an Orioles and decided to bring in the fences. Kauffman Stadium has notoriously been a tough park for power, as it has only ranked above the bottom five in the MLB in HR park factor in one of the last five seasons. It has especially been tough for left-handed power, so a huge plus for Vinnie P, Jac Caglianone, and even Carter Jensen in the heart of that lineup. Maikel Garcia is a great compliment to Bobby at the top of the lineup that will help to set the platter for all of those guys. All of the players mentioned commonly get brought up when talking about all of the young talent in that lineup. But there’s two guys that I think are being slept on a bit when discussing this team.

Every year I take a stroll through all of the previous season’s expected hitting metrics and try to find my guy. And “my guy” just means who I deem the most unlucky hitter by using all of those metrics. Salvador Perez is that guy for me this season. There are only two players who ranked in the top five last season with the largest negative difference (meaning unlucky) between their expected numbers and actual numbers in the realm of batting average, slugging percentage, and wOBA. One was Michael Conforto (with a much smaller sample size so not too relevant to me) and the other was old man Salvy.

He’s 36 years old with his future replacement Carter Jensen getting ABs all season, so people just brush past him especially with all the flashier, younger names around him in that lineup. But Salvy is still there to drive in runs. And it probably helps him that Jensen will be able to catch some games behind the dish, allowing Salvy to stay off of his feet and DH some days.

Why was Salvy so unlucky and what stands out in his 2025 profile? It’s obviously his run values against the slider and changeup. If I told that to someone who at least knows a little bit of Salvy ball, that wouldn’t sound shocking. He has been in the 3rd percentile or lower in chase rate in every single year of his career, and yes that is a very real and hilarious stat. His walk rates aren’t as drastic but are relatively similar. All this to say that he swings a lot, so pitchers attack him with a lot of offspeed outside the zone to get him to chase.

So in watching his ABs and the numbers behind them, he roped a lot of line drives on those offspeed pitches. Especially on the slider, where he still had a 50% hard hit rate. It’s very difficult to get those batted ball results with how much Salvy pulls the ball in the air, which has been a staple of his throughout his entire career.

All without mentioning the new dimensions, which won’t magically turn Salvy’s 30 HRs/100 RBIs into 40/120 but will definitely make a positive difference for him and the rest of this lineup.

The other guy I like who I won’t go on as long about is Isaac Collins. He along with Nick Mears came over from Milwaukee in a deal for Angel Zerpa after a very solid rookie season. Unlike Salvy the advanced analytics don’t exactly like Collins since he doesn’t hit the ball all that hard and got decently lucky in batted ball results. But his discipline and swing decisions at the plate are elite enough for me to trust in him, especially being that he brings a presence that they desperately needed in the second half of that lineup and the outfield that was horrid at the plate last year. Despite his candidacy for regression, watch out for Collins this season.

The pitching staff genuinely excites too, which is something you haven’t been able to say in Kansas City in some time. Ragans will be back and healthy for this season, and will take the leap to being a true ace. Kris Bubic and Noah Cameron broke out last year and I think those guys have solid, sustainable stuff. And Wacha is a consistent veteran arm to have in the middle of that rotation.

The question on this end becomes: how do the new dimensions affect the rotation? I don’t think all that much. You notice I didn’t mention one specific starter while glazing, and that was definitely for a reason. Seth Lugo is the one starter they have that gives up hard contact in the air pretty consistently so it’s a big worry for him. He’s been dodging some regression for the past two seasons and this may be the final nail in the coffin.

But the other guys should be perfectly fine. Ragans has elite swing and miss stuff, Bubic and Cameron have great ground ball stuff, and Wacha has somehow been able to suppress HRs his entire career. The rotation should not only be minimally affected but they will be flat out solid.

And the Royals bullpen that finished the 2025 season ranked 7th in the league got better. Carlos Estevez and John Schreiber were fantastic last year, and bringing Nick Mears and Matt Strahm into the fold among others should fortify this unit. Especially in a division where we know runs come at a premium, this could turn into a scary staff quickly.

Two years ago it felt like we had all the reasons to believe in the Tigers to break out. This year feels eerily similar to that for the Royals. The Royals will take the Guards place in the two-man race for the AL Central that we saw between Cleveland and Detroit down the stretch last year. This is more than a .500 team and one that you’ll see in playoff baseball.