The Road to Generational MLBSZN Wealth: Volume 1

The Reds finally broke through and made the playoffs in the 2025 season. You would have thought if that were the case then the story would have been Elly De La Cruz breaking through to superstar status, with the power flashes that we saw in his rookie year giving this offense the spark it needed. But the Cincy offense was pitiful down the stretch and they made the postseason in spite of their lineup. The pitching staff kept them in games, as their rotation was a top 10 unit in baseball and the bullpen wasn’t too far behind, finishing in the top half of the league.

Was Elly the reason the Reds lineup was as horrid as it was? Not exactly, but he was put in a tough spot for a few different reasons. The biggest one being that Elly played through a partially torn quad that he suffered around the All-Star break in July. We don’t have the exact date where it began to be an issue, but anyone who watched De La Cruz in the 2nd half of last season can tell you it was very visibly apparent. His power wasn’t nearly the same and he changed his entire approach because of it, just as the numbers will tell you. 

From the beginning of the season through the end of July (110 games), Elly slashed .285/.363/.489 with 19 HRs. He slashed just .221/.280/.341 with 3 HRs in his final 52 games. It was clear some injury was bothering him, and we didn’t get clarity on exactly what it was until the offseason where GM Nick Krall revealed it. Elly would have been much better served by a trip to the IL so he could’ve gotten healthy but the problem was the Reds lineup couldn’t afford that. They were in the heat of the playoff race and had nearly zero threat of power in the lineup outside of Elly. Through July, Spencer Steer led the rest of the non-Elly Reds with just 12 HRs. Not to mention they really didn’t have a backup option at shortstop either.

So Elly was dealing with the quad injury and had way too much on his plate as the run producer in the lineup. Teams weren’t eager to attack him in the zone because nobody else was a huge threat. This forced Elly to shorten up and try to put the ball in play a bit more, an approach for him that doesn’t maximize his skillset.

Now enter this year. The big thing is health obviously, as he’s since recovered from the quad injury that gave him trouble in the 2nd half. But the lineup should also provide him with more protection this year. The big name is obviously Eugenio Suarez, the Reds’ big FA signing who is coming off of a career year with 49 HRs. He’ll see plenty of time hitting behind Elly which will finally make teams attack Elly in the zone. Getting Elly’s speed on the basepaths with Eugenio Suarez waiting to drive him in is a nightmare for pitching staffs. They’ll essentially have to pick one to attack. 

Can’t forget the rest of the lineup too, which all seemingly played their worst stretch of baseball at some point last year. All except maybe Miguel Andujar, who hit .359 in his time with Cincy after getting there at the deadline. Matt McLain, Spencer Steer, Santiago Espinal, KeBryan Hayes and Tyler Stephenson were auto outs for long stretches of baseball. Guys like TJ Friedl, Noelvi Marte, Gavin Lux, and Austin Hays were much better over the course of the year but not consistent enough to make a repeatable difference. 

Andujar and Suarez are elite protection for Elly against LHP, which is his weaker split. Sal Stewart is a popular pick for NL ROTY, and for good reason. Noelvi Marte could be in for a breakout season while guys like McLain and Stephenson bounce back. It won’t be Elly and everyone else this season, and both he and the Reds brass knows this.

Hence why over the offseason the big Elly leg kick from his rookie year seems to have come back, as well as him adding some muscle. We mentioned the approach change last year out of necessity, more balls in play and less strikeouts. He simplified his swing, shrunk the leg kick, and was simply unable to drive the ball consistently. Charlie Goldsmith in the tweet below as well as a few others has done a solid job in the last few weeks covering exactly what I’ve been looking for early in spring training: talks about the return of Elly’s power mechanics. Now that he’s healthy and has lineup protection, he gets to lean into his strength at the plate: his power.

Another interesting nugget is the park factor. We all know the Great American “Small” Park is known for its favorable hitting conditions, but that wasn’t quite the case last year. 2025 was the first year since 2019 that GABP had a below average park factor. In 4 of the last 5 years prior (2020-2024), GABP has not only been above average but has ranked in the top 4 of the MLB. I’m no weatherman but backing a known hitters park to regress to the mean of environmental factors after an outlier year seems pretty smart to me. More favorable hitting conditions can only help Elly, especially with as much as he peppered the warning track last season both on the road and at home.

This is the year where the stars align for De La Cruz’s power to break back out on the scene, and we have a great opportunity to buy low after an injury-riddled back half of 2025. I feel pretty strongly about Elly getting above this 23.5 projection and think he’ll be pushing 30 if he stays healthy.