Swaim's NFL Superbook/Pick 5 Preview for Week 9

Here are my five contest plays for Week 9 -- as well as some that missed the cut on the sharp side or the donkey side.

Year-to-Date Contest Recap: 23-17

Note: Plays are sorted in order of confidence. My contest doesn't allow Thursday or international games.

Now that Shedeur Sanders is under center, it's finally time to take the Browns seriously.

I jest, but I've been off a chalky-yet-successful Cleveland team since their Thursday night win over Pittsburgh, and it's largely been the right call. They lost to the Jets, should have lost to the Titans, and did lose to that same Steelers team.

This is one of the most talented rosters in the NFL. Both running backs are healthy, the weapons cupboard is full, and this defense ranks a solid 12th in EPA per play allowed.

I'm one of the few who haven't scurried away from what was an obvious consensus in March 2025: Sanders is a first-round quarterback talent. Clearly, his issues at the microphone scared teams away, but Sanders' supporting cast is night and day better than last year's, and that awful Browns roster, with Kevin Stefanski, went 3-4 with him as the starter.

New Orleans is mediocre. They're 23rd in offensive EPA per play, and they're 19th on defense. It feels like the former only gets going in garbage time, and they're 29th in rushing yards allowed.

I expect the Browns to win this game behind Quinshon Judkins and the defense, but I'm not afraid of the QB. I actually think he's an upgrade over a panicky, sack-prone Deshaun Watson, yet his insertion gave us the hook.

Here's another quarterback switch that I think will breathe life into the offense.

Tanner McKee is your average backup QB jobber who can't stretch the field vertically. It's amazing how long one game against Washington two years ago bought him. Joe Milton might not be ideal, but we saw him win in Week 18 with New England years ago, and he's starred in the preseason since. At the very least, he's a playmaker.

There isn't a more inflated team in the NFL than the New York Giants. I don't know how they keep doing it, but Cam Skattebo's hamstring was sacrificed for the outright win in Houston. Without him, this running game is plain, and Vic Fangio versus J.J. McCarthy, who now has tape in Matt Nagy's offense out there, is a plain mismatch.

Saquon Barkley is slowly getting healthier, and the Giants are 25th against the run. In a preseason lookahead of this game, the Eagles would have been 7.5-point favorites. They're now 3.5-point 'dogs. Are Jalen Hurts and DeVonta Smith worth 10 points over Joe Milton and Makai Lemon, who has broken out in Smith's absence? I don't think Philly fans would like my answer.

I'm taking three straight hooks here, but this one on Monday night feels like a no-brainer.

It's been nothing but negative press for the Vikings all week, but Detroit is just a bad matchup for them. Kyler Murray struggles as a one-dimensional passer when the Lions are great against the run. Jared Goff is really good against the blitz. I have no panic here.

I still think this is the best defense in the NFL, and almost all metrics agree with me. Plus, they're so much healthier than everyone else on offense. The line is solid. Jordan Mason and Jordan Addison are back. I want to buy any healthy units I can find.

The Fightin' Josh Allens caught another break last week, getting first crack at Joe Fagnano. They were in jeopardy against him late into the 3rd quarter, too. On an unadjusted basis, this defense is 25th in EPA per play. They're probably last if you account for the quarterbacks they've gotten at the right time.

This sort of reminds me of the opposite spot I took with the Bills in L.A. Josh Allen can certainly pull this out late with heroics, but you just take the hook in Bills games with their defense. I think it would have worked last week with Lamar, and I think it'll work here.

Key numbers decided my last one in. I'd have taken the Raiders at 10 points or the Colts at 6 points, but those fell on the wrong side of the hook. This one didn't.

This is perceived as a public side, but I legitimately can't find a gambler, fan, talking head, or anyone in between who will say a nice word about the Denver Broncos. It is public sentiment that they suck or have been lucky to win 15 straight one-score games.

Here's the simplest way I can put this, though. Denver is a significantly better team on a neutral field than Carolina, and this line implies they'd only be a half-point favorite. Malarkey.

Carolina's plummet toward the bottom of the NFC South was long overdue. This defense (17th in EPA per play allowed) is heading in the wrong direction, and teams that generate pressure still bother a smaller, overwhelmed Bryce Young -- and an offensive line struggling to protect him. We saw last week what a difference Jonathan Cooper's return made.

I think the Panthers are the fake sharp team of the week.

I'm proud of myself for not losing as much money on this Chargers team as I normally would.

I haven't been on them since Week 3 in Buffalo because the number hasn't been large enough against good teams as they've battled extreme injuries. Well, the latter is slowly improving, and the former probably isn't an accurate description of the Houston Texans.

Perhaps I get burned because DeMeco Ryans cleaned everything up during the bye week, but Houston is 19th in EPA allowed per pass. Justin Herbert has made terrible mistakes forcing things this year, but he's better than J.J. McCarthy, who ripped this secondary a new one.

It is impossible that a top-five team in defensive EPA per play is 0-7 in an NFL where turnover variance eventually helps you out. The Bucs won last week without a completion, and the Chargers should run into one of those by default. I like the Texans in general, so I don't know if this is the spot for the outright win, but Houston hasn't covered 5.5 points (or deserved to) all year.

Part of the fear of any Colts bet or contest play is that Jonathan Taylor or Josh Downs, two of the best five players left on the roster, could be gone at any moment.

There's also just not really a reason to play the spread here. Just like last week, when I gave out Arizona's team total, if you think the Colts compete well enough to cover, their team total (22.5) is the reason.

Indianapolis' defense might be worse than Arizona's. They're 20th against the pass and 32nd against the run, which is why you hope that Brian Schottenheimer's pass-happy tendencies stick around to not completely suck the offense out of this game.

All eight teams have topped 20 points against Dallas this year, and six have reached this mark. It's just an awful unit, and DeMarvion Overshown, Joey Porter Jr., and Malachi Lawrence are all questionable or worse. Good grief.

I can so vividly see the Fernando Mendoza touchdown to cut the lead from 17 to 10 in what was a first-half firestorm from the 49ers. I would not play this in betting markets or contests without a 10 or 10.5.

That's probably not coming with Mike Evans out. This 49ers offense flips from +0.35 EPA per play with Evans on the field to +0.02 with him off. The good news? They've got a reeling Raiders secondary, which has given up 33-plus points in three straight, coming to Santa Clara.

Vegas is 11th in offensive EPA per play, and they're a league-best 6-2 to the over this season, averaging 9.5 points (!) per game to the over compared to the pregame total. Even blowouts have been shootouts. I've got my doubts about the Niners when teams can make Purdy uncomfortable, but this isn't one of those spots.

I really like the Lions in Week 9 survivor picks, but a 6.5-point spread in Miami's twilight zone of a home venue bit me last week. No thanks on two in a row.

One of the reasons I like Detroit outright is the motivation of playing for fallen captain Jack Campbell. It sort of helps avoid a "trap game" for Minnesota and New England against one of the league's worst teams. But, Campbell's absence, along with Kerby Joseph and DJ Reed, are quality defenders from a unit that's 26th in EPA per play allowed with those guys healthy.

Weather concerns mute my interest in betting this one. The uglier it is, the more Miami might hang inside of this touchdown window.

Because Detroit is so much worse against the pass (29th) than the rush (18th), I really like Malik Willis' combo prop in a game where I do believe the Fins trail.

As I stated last week with the Bengals, I just can't get these large spreads right. Cincinnati would have been a horrible pick after all. They're never in consideration in the contest for me. I'm an underdog bettor that can't see that side of the coin too well.

But, that's why I played the over instead, and I'll look for an alternative with Seattle, too.

This one's pretty simple. The defending champs are coming off a stinker where Ben Johnson pants'd their elite defense. Mike LaFleur and Gardner Minshew? That's a bit of a return to normal.

In 2024, Minshew lost 6 of his 10 games as a starter by double digits. He's a limited guy who's easy to prepare for, but he's dangerous in garbage time off the bench against soft zone.

In other matchups, Drew Lock is a downgrade from Sam Darnold. There's a reason this line dropped. But, Seattle's rushing attack is another week healthier, and this is the NFL's 31st-ranked pass defense against JSN. The stud wideout torched them in Week 2.

The "hair on fire" angle is fit for the first half, especially when Polymarket had such a friendly price on this compared to FanDuel (-156) or DraftKings (-145).

If you're new to me, I'm an experienced multisport analyst who has been featured on FanDuel Research, numberFire, PrizePicks Playbook, Home of Fight, and more. If you enjoyed this piece, drop me a follow on X or TikTok at the username @ASwaim3.

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