Futures Friday: Bet This Team To Miss The Playoffs

Eight weeks (and one game) into the NFL season, the playoff race is taking shape and the two conferences look nothing alike. 

The NFC is tightly packed, with all 16 teams within three games of a playoff spot. The AFC is far more top-heavy, with the Chargers, Dolphins, and Titans already effectively eliminated before the midpoint.

Minnesota’s luck finally ran out last week against the Lions. The overly conservative game plan against a weak Detroit defense suggested limited trust in Kyler Murray, who is out this week with a sore hamstring. I consider this to be a soft benching, with Kevin O'Connell handing the starting job to Carson Wentz for a primetime game against the Bills, the No. 1 team in my power ratings.

The bigger concern is that Minnesota’s strong defense also showed cracks, allowing Jahmyr Gibbs to run for 116 yards in the second half of last week’s loss. Buffalo’s offensive line is on par with Detroit’s, and James Cook is running at an elite level. Slowing down Josh Allen and this offense will be difficult, which is why the Bills are favored by more than a field goal on the road.

It doesn’t get easier after this week. Games against the Packers and 49ers loom, and the Vikings have the second-toughest remaining schedule in the NFL by my ratings. Their 6-0 start already feels like a distant memory.

Rather than laying points with Buffalo this week, the better wager is Minnesota missing the playoffs at around 3/1 odds. With a shaky offense and a brutal stretch run ahead, I view this bet closer to a coin flip.