NFL TNF: Caleb's Ten Expectations

The 5-2 Jacksonville Jaguars head into Baltimore to face The Flock, who continue to suffer injury setbacks to their multi-MVP QB in Lamar Jackson -- now in IR with a thumb injury. In the same game, their backup Tyler Huntley suffered a season ending toe injury. Woof.

While The Ravens recently traded for Cardinals backup Jacoby Brissett, he won't be starting for tonight's game; Instead, we get UConn product Joe Fagnano at the helm, who played the final 3 quarters of Week 7's blowout loss against The Bills.

To make matters worse for Fagnano, he'll be dealing with a solid chance for Rain (56%) and strong gusts (17 MPH) during the game. The Jaguars defense suffered two season ending injuries last Sunday, to DT Davon Hamilton (quad) and S Eric Murray (elbow).

Jesse Minter's Ravens have already been averse to passing, with a -4.2% Pass Rate over Expected (PROE), good for 24th in the league. Weather and a rookie QB doesn't necessarily provide Minter with the tools to stray from this rush dependency.

Before buying your Derrick Henry stock, let's talk about how incredible The Jags rush defense has been. They are currently posting Top 5 defensive rankings in:
- Success Rate (36.3%)
- OPP Rush TD (4)
- Explosive Rate (6.7%)
- Yds Before Contact (1.72)

Last one is notable, as Henry is sitting just 31st in Yds after Contact and well outside of The Top 50 in Explosive Rate. After rushing for 60+ yards in his first 5 games of the season, Henry has not surpassed that mark in any game since.

Fagnano threw 21 times in his season debut, with 4 going to Andrews (3 Rec) and another 4 going to Flowers -- none of which were completed, with one being intercepted. The Jaguars' secondary is running the 8th highest rate of zone coverage, while allowing the 6th highest rate of Yds/DB when doing so.

Their offense has been so strong, with a 52% average share of possession (7th best), that the Jags' coverage weaknesses have not translated to high opposing passing marks. Notable marks:
- Stroud 312 Yards, 24/34 C/A, 3 PTD
- Burrow 428 Yards, 39/54 C/A, 1 PTD
- Nix 288 Yards, 22/31 C/A, 1 PTD

Outside WRs have generated the 5th highest TGT/RR (targets per route ran) against Jacksonville, along with the 3rd highest Yds/RR; They have allowed the most yards to wide receivers on the season. Jakobi Lane has yet to run a route from anywhere but out wide, with Rashod Bateman typically being his outside partner.

Here are other receivers with >60% of routes ran out wide to face the Jaguars in their last 5 weeks (recent to past, min. 20 routes/gp):
- Keenan Allen 7 Rec, 67 Yds
- Nico Collins 3 Rec, 74 Yds
- Dontayvion Wicks 5 Rec, 63 Yds
- Darius Cooper 2 Rec, 71 Yds
- Tee Higgens 11 Rec, 151 Yds
- Dohnte Meyers 7 Rec, 82 Yds
- Mitch Tinsley 3 Rec, 49 Yds

Some productive history from this group. Ceiling is high for Lane and Bateman tonight if weather permits.

Thus, we play into Chris Rodriguez Jr. as the top back for tonight, who was also limited all week but is not on the injury report here.

The Ravens are closer to a mid-pack rush defense, yet do have Top 10 rankings in STUFF (20.1%) and Explosive Rate (7.8%). There have been 6 running backs to log digit-double carries against Baltimore, and four of them logged 80+ rushing yards. Granted, this was a pretty talented group of running backs in Bijan, Taylor, Cook III, and Javonte Williams.

With Jags already dominating the time of possession battle, and Rodriguez's 4.6 YPC is elite enough to provide upside.

Over the past month, the Ravens have shown Cover 2 (2-HI) and Cover 3 (1-HI) in over half of their coverage looks. They have allowed the 4th most Air Yards in these two looks, yet are 11th in Yds/DB allowed as well.

Lawrence is amongst the premiere QBs in the league, yet sits 21st in Completion rate against those two specific looks amongst all QBs with >50 drop backs. However perspective is key here, as his 66.3% completion rate in this sample is actually beating his season average (65.7%) and any average of his career.

Brenton Strange is leading the Jags' pass-catcher room in 1st Read Share against Cover 2/3 at 25.2%. His matchup further improves as Tight Ends are producing the highest TPRR against Baltimore amongst all position groups at 0.21.

Here are TE1s against Baltimore, regardless of there specific coverage success:
- Kincaid 4 Rec, 86 Yds
- Gesicki 1 Rec, 6 Yds
- Fannin Jr. 1 Rec, 9 Yds
- Pitts Sr. 5 Rec, 42 Yds
- Gunnar Helm 1 Rec, 5 Yds

Yikes.

Primetime favorites have now won three straight, moving them to 6-9 ATS on the year (only TNF & MNF). The Ravens come in here as 10 point dogs.

The Jaguars are allowing the 2nd fewest FGA/gp this season at just 1.4, which has improved further in their last 3 games to just 1 a game. Meanwhile, The Ravens are on the other end in this category, ranking 18th and facing a gung ho Cam Little.