Futures Friday: Who Will Be the No. 1 Seed in the AFC?

Futures Friday is a weekly column highlighting markets with long-term value. This week: which team to back for the AFC No. 1 seed.

The market is typically skewed toward the Bills and Chiefs due to their quarterbacks, but both look overpriced. Instead, two under-the-radar teams with soft remaining schedules stand out.

Per my power ratings, the Bengals have the easiest remaining schedule in the NFL. At 4-2, they sit one game behind the Chiefs and Bills for the AFC’s best record. Their next six games are against subpar competition (Titans, Falcons, Steelers, Commanders, Saints, Browns) before they host Kansas City on December 13.

Joe Burrow is playing at an MVP level. The early bye helped get key weapons healthy, and unlike past seasons, the offensive line is protecting him well. The defense has also improved under Al Golden in his second year as coordinator, with Dexter Lawrence drawing DPOY buzz. Cincinnati should be priced closer to Buffalo (+200) and Kansas City (+260).

The Jaguars beat the Bengals earlier this season, so a tie for the best record would give Jacksonville the edge. They also own the third-easiest remaining schedule per my power ratings.

The defense got shredded by C.J. Stroud in London two weeks ago, but that was an exceptional performance under pressure in a close game. Jacksonville is a balanced team with a top-five offense led by Liam Coen and Trevor Lawrence. The defense is good enough to keep them competitive, and three of their next five games are against the Titans (twice) and Colts. They also face three NFC East teams over their final eight games, a division shaping up as the league’s worst.