Patriots vs Bears TNF: The PrizePicks Square the Math Loves but Your Gut Will Hate

What's up BookIt, I'm Dustin or @SportsByDustin on X. This is my first article on the site, so bear with me. Quick thing about me before we get into it. I don't bet with my gut. I bet +EV, and I know that's not how most of you play, so let me explain it as easy as possible.

+EV just means positive expected value. You're getting a better price than you should be. Say your buddy offers to flip a coin with you, and if it's heads you win $12, but if it's tails you only lose $10. You'll still lose a bunch of flips. But if he lets you keep flipping all night, you're going home with his money.

PrizePicks is a great place to find those flips, because it treats every square like a coin flip. Over or under, same payout. The sportsbooks don't work that way. They put real odds on every line, and sometimes the market is basically telling you a square on PrizePicks isn't 50/50 at all. I use the DFS Optimizer on DGFantasy.com to find those. It pulls in lines from across the market, takes the juice out, and shows you the actual chance a square hits. It's does all the hard work for you to make it pretty much plug & play the best value and you win long-term.

I was looking for TNF PrizePicks squares and the one that jumped out was TreVeyon Henderson less than 6.5 rush attempts.

PrizePicks has him at 6.5. The sharpest books in the market have him at 5.5, a full carry lower, and they're still pricing the under at even money. The books that are at 6.5 have the under juiced as high as -138. You don't want the over here on PrizePicks. DGF has the under hitting 56.49% of the time, and on a 5 or 6-pick Flex you need to hit about 54.2% on your individual legs to break even. That's your $12 coin flip.

The football side of it makes sense too. Henderson sprained his ankle against the Raiders in Week 5, a high ankle sprain, and those don't heal in a week. He played through it against the Jets on Sunday, and now he has a short week before Thursday. Even when he did play, he only got 16 snaps to Rhamondre Stevenson's 41, and Stevenson had the third downs and the two-minute work. Not to mention he fumbled in the 3rd quarter. The Patriots are also expected to be without both starting guards, Ben Brown and Alijah Vera-Tucker, and Morgan Moses is banged up at right tackle. Plus, they haven't run it well all year.

Lastly, I'm not going to pretend there's no risk here. He got 7 carries last week, which goes over this number. When he's been fully healthy this year, he's cleared it. And the Bears' run defense isn't great. But that's the reason the square looks the way it does. If you only look at his game log, the over looks "easy", and that's why PrizePicks can leave it at 6.5. The market is betting on him taking the field Thursday, with the bad ankle and the fumble and the backup guards, not the guy who got 16 carries in Week 2. I'm trusting the math and the market.

Best Bet PrizePicks Square - TreVeyon Henderson Less Than 6.5 Rush Attempts

If you want to find these +EV plays yourself, you can try DGF for 3-days FREE: DGFantasy.com
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Thanks for reading my first one. I'll be back with more fire for you guys soon.

Ps. See below for a full tutorial video on how to use DGF to beat PrizePicks.