Boots on Ground in Columbus: My 3-Man PrizePicks Slip & Game Preview for Oregon vs Ohio State

What's up BookIt! I'll be at the Shoe on Saturday for Oregon vs Ohio State! I am an FSU fan but my best friend Clint is an Ohio State fan, and he's come to a bunch of FSU games with me, so as any best friend would... I go to some Ohio State games with him. We are squaded up this trip too... Clint, Scott, Brod, B-Halp and myself, it's going to be a hell of a time.

My first trip was two years ago, when Michigan came in as a huge underdog and won 13-10. I had a $10 bonus bet on a futures parlay: Celtics, Dodgers, and Ohio State to win the natty. Ohio State was the last leg, and I'm standing there watching them lose to Michigan smh... Ohio State wins that game 99/100 times and we just happened to get the 1 game Michigan won lol

Ohio State (and I) got the last laugh as they went on to win the whole thing, and they beat Oregon 41-21 in the Rose Bowl along the way. $10 turned into $1,016. My favorite parlay I have ever hit.

Saturday is a weird game and certainly not the game we thought we were buying tickets to in the preseason. Don't even get me started on how much cheaper the tickets are now.

Both teams are down to their backup quarterbacks. Julian Sayin is out, so Ohio State is starting true freshman Luke Fahey for the second time. Ohio State just lost 30-18 at USC, with 11 penalties and four field goals on trips where they needed touchdowns. They're 6-2, they probably can't afford another loss if they want to make the playoff, and they haven't lost at home yet.

Oregon is 5-3 and has been all over the place, with losses at Oklahoma State and Illinois and a win at USC. Dante Moore is done for the year, but Dylan Raiola looked great last week, going for 336 yards and three touchdowns in a win over Northwestern. Dakorien Moore had 128 of those. The problem is the backfield, because Jordon Davison was on crutches last week and Dierre Hill is banged up.

Ohio State is laying about 7 and the total is only 46.5. I think this is a slower, uglier game than people expect, and that's what my slip is built on. I use DGFantasy.com to find spots where PrizePicks is off from the market. A 3-man Power pays 6x, so you need about 55% per leg to break even.

Bo Jackson more than 88.5 rushing yards is my favorite. Some books favor him slightly over 88.5 and some are up at 99.5, meaning PrizePicks is 11 yards lower. Ohio State ran for 204 at USC, and I doubt Ryan Day wants a freshman throwing 38 times again.

That's why I also like Fahey less than 216.5 passing yards. He had 260 at USC, but only 134 before the last two drives. The more Bo runs, the less Fahey throws, and PrizePicks is still paying the full 6x with those two together.

For Oregon, I'm on Jamari Johnson more than 3.5 receptions. He only had 2 catches last week, but he saw 7 targets. He’s averaging over 4 catches a game and has cleared 3.5 in four of his six games, and the market still has the over as a slight favorite. It also fits the rest of the slip. If Ohio State is running it and playing with a lead, Oregon has to throw, and with their running backs banged up, the tight end is an easy place for Raiola to go.

These are a little short of 55% odds percent to hit we need on their own for this to be +EV, so the slip needs the Bo and Fahey correlation to pay off. If Ohio State falls behind, that correlation isn't as strong.

Score Prediction:
Oregon - 17
Ohio State - 24

Bo Jackson more than 88.5 rushing yards
Luke Fahey less than 216.5 passing yards
Jamari Johnson more than 3.5 receptions

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I'll be posting from Columbus on Saturday, @SportsByDustin on X.