Swaim's NFL Superbook/Pick 5 Preview for Week 8

Year-to-Date Contest Recap: 21-14

Note: Plays are sorted in order of confidence. My contest doesn't allow Thursday or international games.

It warms my heart to fade this awful Bills defense. All FanDuel users can see is Josh Allen. All I can see is that unit.

Buffalo is 31st in EPA per play allowed on that side of the ball, and Joe Brady doesn't really care. He's focused solely on his side of the ball and on controlling the tempo, but he's going to have a problem in these matchups against good run defenses. Baltimore, 8th in run stuff rate, is one of those.

Lamar Jackson returns, but I'd take 3.5 points with Snoop Huntley in this spot. Frankly, Lamar on a bad ankle might be a downgrade. It probably doesn't matter as "King Henry" gets to attack a bottom-10 run defense for the first time since 89 yards and 2 touchdowns against Dallas.

The 4-3 Ravens are a better, more well-rounded team than the Bills. Losses in their own brutal division don't change that.

The Raiders are frauds, and that's okay.

Klint Kubiak is an excellent coach, and this team is still accumulating passable talent at most positions. They're a year or two away, even if Fernando Mendoza pans out. I am still questioning that.

Regardless, this is a terrible spot for the Raiders, traveling all the way across the country against a Jets team that just got embarrassed. This pass rush is legitimate, as evidenced by the team's 8.2% sack rate. They stop the run. Omar Cooper Jr. gives them two legitimate weapons with two great backs.

New York's bevy of recent picks has given them more talent around Geno Smith than around Kirk Cousins, and that gap isn't wide enough to justify saying Vegas is 1.5 points better on a neutral field.

Las Vegas is 21st in rushing EPA per play allowed, and it's probably 32nd when running away from Maxx Crosby's side of the line.

The Raiders are 4-1 against the spread (ATS) with a home crowd, including the game at SoFi. They're 1-1 ATS in true road games, including getting detonated by the Patriots. The latter outcome is who they truly are, and the public will realize it when the Jets win in Week 8.

If you're new to this piece, get used to the Bucs and the Texans. We'll be on both plenty as their climb back up the standings ensues.

Miraculously, Tampa's is nearly finished with a win here. They'll be a half-game out of first in the NFC South with a win, and the players have sensed it in recent weeks. After a tough start, Todd Bowles' defense is up to third in EPA per play allowed, and Vita Vea has them ninth against the run.

Kevin Stefanski is a permafade for me in most settings, but then I keep having to struggle with spots like last week's. Here's the opposite. Off a mammoth win, can he keep the ship righted against a team that will put it on Michael Penix Jr.'s shoulders?

I think the answer is "no". Bucs OC Zac Robinson is extremely familiar with Penix's strengths and weaknesses. Last week was Atlanta's first win of the year with less than 150 rushing yards, and they needed 4 turnovers to make it happen.

In a low-scoring game with plenty of kicks, Chase McLaughlin hasn't missed one yet. That could be noteworthy.

My last two entries are square as heck. It's like I've lost myself entirely.

Look, the reality is that after this week's trade for Jeffrey Simmons, the Bears are the best team in football. Caleb Williams is now as efficient as he is explosive, the run game is elite, and this team can now stop the run in front of its talented secondary.

It really was the right time and position for them to invest, and if they are as good as I think they are, you can't make them a 3.5-point underdog to any team in the NFC -- even the Seattle team I'd muse is the second-best squad.

The Seahawks still just aren't at peak form as they try to get Zach Charbonnet and Jadarian Price back, so Sam Darnold will still have quite a bit of pressure on his shoulders. The rush defense, ranking 9th in stuff rate, isn't quite as dominant.

Seattle just took it to Kenneth Walker in primetime, creating a slightly shorter week against a Ben Johnson team on extended rest. I'll take the hook with the Bears.

I'd rather not play this in the contest. As I'm writing this on Saturday, I'm hoping either of my "last two out" numbers get to the magic number.

But, this feels like a spot where the Patriots cruise. They're on extended rest coming off a disappointing loss in primetime, and the Dolphins' stock has never been higher after their first win of the season. Miami is still 29th in offensive EPA per play and 32nd in defensive EPA per play allowed. They're horrible.

Usually, Hard Rock Stadium would cook visitors in their dark uniforms, but this game will end in the dark with the late kickoff. It's a small thing that makes the "South Beach Trap" less plausible.

I like this communal New England offense better than when they're force-feeding targets to A.J. Brown. I like this offense better when they feed Rhamondre Stevenson instead of pretending like TreVeyon Henderson isn't a giant bust.

Put all of these things together, and I think this is one of those road spreads that feels big to lay but seems so easy in hindsight because the Dolphins are awful. I haven't always had the best luck pinpointing these, though.

This is 7.5 almost everywhere. I'd play it at 7.5 above both the Bears and the Patriots, so make that decision yourself if your contest has a different line.

But, at 6.5, I don't feel the urge. The appeal of a "7" is Jacoby Brissett, the glorious king of garbage time, chucks one to Trey McBride that the Cowboys don't care about because they're heading toward the top of the NFC East. That is all the Cardinals are good for at this stage anyway:

But, the alternative here is a better bet anyway. I want nothing to do with the league's worst secondary, which just revived Bo Nix, trying to stop CeeDee Lamb, George Pickens, and Dak Prescott.

If you think an Arizona effort is coming, it's in a shootout regardless. I probably don't even need the point I'm buying, but 23 and 24 are two of the NFL's six most common point totals. Might as well pay a few cents for both.

This game features a cardinal sin in NFL spread betting. You do not lay more than 6 points with a divisional road underdog.

The visitors are 4-0 in this spot this season, but I just can't help but fear this is a spot where it goes to 4-1. The Colts had a fire sale this week, and two of their best players, Jonathan Taylor and Josh Downs, want out.

An aggressive Jaguars front seven is not the place to throw Daniel Jones to the wolves. They're a top-five run defense to bottle Taylor, and they're fifth in pass rush win rate.

As I describe the matchup, it sounds like I should be on the Jags. But, this one-dimensional Colts offense can't score. Outside of a long Taylor run, they didn't post an offensive touchdown against Minnesota. The under is an easy hedge against the possibility that -- somehow and some way -- Indianapolis delivers in this cash cow spot for disrespected divisional rivals.

The Bengals might live in this section all year. I love them, but they just keep ending up in these public spots. Imagine the Titans are down 20, and we get a meaningless touchdown-and-two-point update on RedZone long after the outcome is in doubt.

Cincinnati is sixth in EPA per play, and Tennessee's trade of Simmons is a white-flag wave defensively, but this is the type of spot where Zac Taylor's team usually lays an egg. Ask anyone who plays survivor every year. 

Teams at least two games under .500 are averaging 23.4 PPG against the Bengals since the start of 2025, including the Dolphins (24) two weeks ago, who were right on that average.

Tennessee showed they could move the ball last week, and Wan'Dale Robinson is a great tool to deploy against a team still struggling with slot coverage next to DJ Turner.

As one of Cam Ward's last believers still standing, I'll take the over. I wouldn't be surprised at all if it cashes in a competitive contest.

As someone who regularly bets on the Dolphins and Titans, there aren't many teams I consider dead and won't back. These Eagles are totally dead.

Saquon Barkley grimaced after every run last week, and Tanner McKee -- who an Eagles fan once told me was better than Bo Nix -- averaged just 6.0 yards per attempt against Dallas.

Before their bye, the Commanders had every reason to lay over and boot Dan Quinn, but they didn't. Their Pro Bowl quarterback was masterful, and the defense, ranked 28th in EPA per play, did just enough behind Sonny Styles to keep it close.

Because they're 31st in time of possession (27:40), Philly's tired defense has plummeted to 25th in EPA per play, so what are you betting? Their coaching has been a liability for multiple seasons. Barkley can barely walk, and Jalen Hurts and DeVonta Smith are out.

This is a short week for the Eagles, and a rested Washington team awaits. I really don't have any doubts about the full-game spread, but why take it if the read is that "quick start" angle?

If you're new to me, I'm an experienced multisport analyst who has been featured on FanDuel Research, numberFire, PrizePicks Playbook, Home of Fight, and more. If you enjoyed this piece, drop me a follow on X or TikTok at the username @ASwaim3.

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