Rangers vs Cardinals: Runs are Fun

We get Jacob DeGrom vs Michael McGreevy tonight in St. Louis. It screams of a low-scoring under game on the surface, as seen by all of twitter backing DeGrom to pitch well and the Rangers to win at the cheap price of -120. I don’t fully agree but have a play that I like more, which is the over 7.5.

DeGrom was pretty bad in the month of May, tallying a 5.72 ERA in 5 starts while giving up 9 home runs along the way. In 2 of those starts he looked like vintage DeGrom for the most part, with 6 innings of 2 run ball against the Astros and a 7 inning shutout against the Cubs. And where did those games take place? At Globe Life Field, where runs go to die. The other 3 starts where he gave up a combined 16 runs were indeed on the road.

Just like we know most Rockies pitchers will have pretty drastic home/road splits due to Coors, most Rangers pitchers are the same way because of their pitcher-friendly home environment. But none as drastic as DeGrom’s road era of 6.00 compared to his 1.52 at home. And it makes a ton of sense given what his struggles are.

DeGrom typically gives up a solo shot or two regardless of how well he does in the start. His fastball is getting hit hard, and he has nearly no ground ball stuff this year. So if he isn’t getting strikeouts, the ball will be in the air. While the Cardinals sit around league average in both ground ball and fly ball rates, when they do hit the ball in the air they hit it hard, especially against RHP. The top of the lineup with guys like Wetherholt, Walker, and Burleson can do just that while the guy towards the bottom like Gorman and Crooks can certainly run into one as well. DeGrom can produce a good amount of whiffs in this one, but it should come with a few big XBH too.

Michael McGreevy is on the other side and he’s been one of the luckier pitchers in baseball so far this season. He has pitched to a 2.98 ERA with an xERA of 5.64. And contrary to DeGrom he’s done it by keeping the ball on the ground. His changeup against LHBs and sinker against RHBs has produced elite results as hitters are hitting just .149 and .194 off of them respectively. But despite not being at full strength, this current Rangers lineup has destroyed this formula recently.

The formula of overpowering fastball and wipeout offspeed has given the Rangers trouble recently, as illustrated by Tatsuya Imai’s 6 no-hit innings and Spencer Arrighetti’s no-hit bid he took into the 8th. But the low-whiff sinker/changeup guys pose a different matchup. RHB such as Burger and Duran have elite numbers against the sinker and are seeing the ball well right now. LHB like Alejandro Osuna and Joc Pederson have some great recent numbers against the changeup too. The Rangers lineup shouldn’t have much of an issue creating foot traffic on the bases against McGreevy.

And while both bullpens are relatively rested (especially the Cardinals after getting 60+ pitches from Hunter Dobbins out of the pen last night), when these bullpens do give up runs (particularly the Rangers) they tend to come in bunches. So we ride out for the full game over 7.5.