Patriots vs Seahawks: The Super Bowl PrizePicks Square You Need to Take

TreVeyon Henderson hasn’t had the role many have thought he would in the playoffs so far. There’s definitely reasons that would be concerning for that. Both his inability to pass block and some struggles in run game execution definitely played a part in it. But I think the matchups have really exaggerated it too.

When the Patriots play a man-heavy defense, they are comfortable letting Drake Maye sit back and take his one on one shots on the outside. That’s what they rely on for explosives against that style of defense, which is normal. Out of their playoff matchups, the Broncos and Texans both fit that mold of heavy man while the Chargers more closely align with the Seahawks side of heavy zone usage. 

Combine the disruptive fronts of the Broncos and Texans with their scheme and it’s hard to justify keeping one of the better pass blocking backs in Rhamondre off the field. Add in the context of the two games as well and it starts to make more sense. Maye didn’t play well against the Texans but CJ Stroud became addicted to giving the Pats the ball. So the approach was essentially to not push the envelope on anything offensively because they didn’t have to against Stroud. And then the obvious in the Broncos game, it was a winter wonderland where Maye only threw 7 passes in the 2H. It was just ground and pound with Rhamondre and pray to get out of the game.

Now on to the Seahawks. The systems against them all year have been TEs and RB dump downs (don’t let Hunter Henry squeak, we will be there too). But that’s very intentional from them. They play plenty of 2 high safety looks which forces underneath passing by design. It gets magnified by the amount of pressure they generate on the QB. So teams not only have to be ready to abort to an underneath option when needed but need a plan going in.

I think Henderson serves a unique purpose in this game. Sure Rhamondre will be the primary target in the receiving game out of the backfield just because of the snaps but Henderson can break this game open and break this defense down with his explosive ability. And I think that’s something the Pats will need to get creative to find. Their offense hasn’t been incredibly explosive against these zone teams, but Maye has done very well taking what the defense gives him. In this matchup the sweet spot should be him doing exactly that while giving an explosive threat after the catch.

Now from talking about this square this week, everyone’s concerns aren’t really about the matchup. It’s all about Henderson getting on the field after a game where he logged 4 snaps, which is understandable. But just in case you want another pretty insane matchup nugget I’ve got one for you. Of the Seahawks’ 19 games this season, multiple RBs have had 4+ rec yds against them in 13 of them. Meaning in all 13 of those games, both the starter and a backup hit that number. Which is similar to what we’ve seen in the two playoff games.

Game script obviously was a big thing in the 41-6 game against the 49ers, but CMC had 5/39 while Jordan James had a catch for 7 (and BRob with a catch for 3). And against the Rams, Corum and Kyren both tallied 3 catches each, going for 24 and 22 yards. All this to say that if your brain takes you to “well let’s just take Rhamondre then”, I can show you there is plenty of room for Henderson to get loose against this scheme.

I think there’s a couple of ways the Pats will look to give Henderson an opportunity to create an explosive play. Some could be on the ground but my favorite way to bet him in this game is with a glorious dump down for 4+. After starting at 1.5, his projection has creeped up and moved back and forth a few yards. Who knows where the number ends, but whatever number it ends at ends green. There is truly no other way.

A sprinkle on the 9.5 and 14.5 demon squares are worthwhile too, which you can also get now for around +225 and +375 respectively.