Nasty PrizePicks CBB Squares for January 21st

The sole more than in today’s article is this one. Nebraska hosts Washington tonight in what I think should be an odd game for the Huskies defense. Doesn’t sound like I’m saying too much there because the Huskers have been too tough of a matchup for all 18 teams they’ve played so far, but this one is a little different. Washington’s 3PT defense hasn’t been horrible this season, sitting just inside the Top 90 in CBB. They have been aided by some bad shooting teams and a lot of missed open looks, however. And the strength of that 3PT defense has largely been with their guards, not as much against big men. Hannes Steinbach and Franck Kepnang are fantastic rim defenders, and consistently challenging them there is not the Huskers’ game anyway. 

 Nebraska wants to spread the floor, play uptempo, and shoot a bunch of threes. The easiest way to do that is by utilizing your big that can shoot, as illustrated by their approach against Michigan State when Mast shot 6-13 from three. Berke Buyuktuncel is 8-33 on the season from three, so he is capable but not exactly willing, nor does it make much sense for him to be the crutch of the gameplan. Mast has hit exactly one three in each of his last four games on 19 attempts. He also only played 17 and 20 minutes in their last two games due to blowouts. This one should be closer for a bit longer, and should require his perimeter involvement early.

Another one of the 3PT-reliant guys I enjoy fading in a tough spot against a good 3PT defense. David Douglas is that guy tonight. New Mexico is the 16th ranked perimeter defense in CBB despite allowing the 11th most. They aren’t allowing teams to get clean looks off, even in the higher scoring games they tend to play. David Douglas has played well lately, to the point of even getting inserted into the starting lineup. He has 10 3PM in his last 4 games and has also hit this 8.5 points projection in all of those. He has had the luxury of shooting over smaller defenders and has hit a few very deep threes as well. Those should be tough to come by against the Lobos, as he should see a good bit of Luke Haupt and Jake Hall, some bigger defenders at the perimeter. I think Fresno as a unit struggles to score consistently tonight, and I’ll tip cap if Douglas hits tough shots to exceed 8.5 points tonight.

Styles Phipps hasn’t had less than 6 boards in his last 4 games. Tonight though this Zags team should make him work for it. Braden Huff is out for a few weeks and Graham Ike is questionable for the Zags in this one too. So you’d think this would really hurt their rebounding numbers, especially if Ike can't go. But this has forced the Zags guards (Smith, Warley, Miller, Grant-Foster) to be more active on the boards to compensate. With Huff alone out I think you'll see the same big effort you've seen from those guards to rebound and box out as we've seen the last few games. And if they're also missing Ike the same holds true with an extra emphasis on it.

Phipps had 7 rebounds in their first matchup against Gonzaga, but that game included not only Huff but Steele Venters in the starting lineup. Venters is not nearly the willing rebounder that those other four guards are despite his size at 6’7” (it makes no sense). Ever since then, the other guards have began to see minute increases while his role has diminished. That spells bad news for what Phipps can do on the boards. If there’s a spike in rebounding on the Pepperdine side from the injuries it will likely come from the bigs. Should be noted that the spread is nearly 30 points with a shorthanded Gonzaga team, which could be an indicator that this game may be similar to the 40-point destruction that happened the first time around. Any missed minutes for a blowout would be welcome in this household.

Another nasty fade here, as Miller has eclipsed 2.5 assists in 7 straight games. A lot of these assists have come from skip passes after Miller being doubled with the ball in his hands. Teams like Colorado, West Virginia, and UCF have to do that because he’s a matchup nightmare for smaller teams. Even the better teams like Houston and Iowa State don’t have the size to defend one-on-one all of the time. Arizona has the size and physicality to do exactly that. 

Krivas will likely be on Thiam while Kharchenkov and Peat are able to play in single coverage against Miller. Miller has some height on them but the physicality swings heavy in the Wildcats favor, hence why they should be able to trust them to defend in those situations. As illustrated by UCF last game against Arizona, your best chance to beat this defense right now seems to be creation off the dribble. So this feels like the ball will be in the hands of Jizzle James and Day Day Thomas a bunch, rather than in Miller’s. Of course, off script plays could happen especially in transition but Arizona’s transition defense has been solid for the most part in Big 12 play. It also feels like shortening the game with a slower pace is the most likely path to an upset for the Bearcats, so I would not be surprised to see that be their approach early in this one which should help this script.