CBB PrizePicks Plays for 2/3

Welcome back fellas. Split yesterday on the squares. The Kingz fade was free as air, didn't even make a three until very late in the game. The Council square died the second Christian Anderson got ruled out at gametime, since that was a huge crutch of the read but we move. Can't split today because we have three locked and loaded...

Back at it again with an old friend. We faded his 9.5 points a week ago against George Mason due to their defensive profile as a team who is beatable from the perimeter but tough to beat inside the arc. He took 11 and 13 shots in his two games prior and saw a decrease in volume with only 8 FGA but snuck over with exactly 10 points.

I’m running it back against a paint defense that’s been even better. Saint Louis is holding teams to 43.3% shooting inside the arc, which is good for 3rd in the country. Slashing guards have had a decently tough time against the Bilikens this year, with a large chunk of their production coming from transition due to the pace they play with. Davidson’s best shot to win this game likely means slowing the tempo down as much as possible and grinding the shot clock down whenever possible. Scovens getting to the rim consistently against this defense should be pretty difficult in the half court. Davidson will likely need the shooters Friedrichsen and Blums to step up in this one rather than Scovens.

Going to one of the most horrid games on the slate with Air Force as a 25.5-point dog on the road against GCU. This game will likely be a bloodbath because this Air Force team is absolutely horrid. GCU’s defense is good at the rim and at the perimeter. The only spot they’re vulnerable at the perimeter is against the stretch bigs. The freshman Hobin is a smaller “big” at 6’8” but helps to stretch the floor and relocate as an option for a kick out from a dribble drive.

Lucas Hobin has had a tough last few games, going 1-7, 1-5, and 1-7 in his past three games. This offense shouldn’t be able to score much in the paint against Efe Demirel and Nana Owusu-Anane. He will have to step out and shoot as a kind of final hail mary for them to score any points. Hobin loves to spot up on the wing, which is exactly where the stretch bigs have had success against this GCU defense from deep. Let him spray or else they lose by 60.

Bennett has had two ten-rebound games in his last four games but unlike some of the other guys we’ve faded who have done this, he doesn’t have a very high rebounding floor. There’s a clear distinction of when Bennett is involved on the boards: when the opposing bigs can stretch the floor. Wyoming has played three teams in conference play that I’d classify as not having a real perimeter threat from the bigs. Nevada with Elijah Price, Fresno with Wilson Jacques, and the first matchup against SDSU with Miles Heide and Pharoah Compton. Magoon Gwath played in the first matchup but not much should change with him out as far as perimeter offense. In those games Bennett recorded 2, 1, and 1 rebound in those games. 

Now to talk about both ten rebound games. In the one against Colorado State, six of his rebounds came off of misses by Kyle Jorgensen, the Rams’ center. Four of them were threes he took, one was a free throw miss, and one was a mid range turnaround. Similar things happened with the ten rebound game against Boise. He had four offensive rebounds in that game, two of them off of 3PT shots and one off of a FT which I don’t think will happen again. His other six rebounds came from shots by Javan Buchanan, Andrew Meadow, and Drew Fielder, who are all effectively bigs for Boise. So Bennett can certainly grab the boards while the bigs were pulled out of the paint, but otherwise doesn’t get very involved.

Bennett had one rebound in their previous matchup, likely due to the fact that the Aztecs’ center Miles Heide can’t shoot. He’s taken only six threes all year. So he’ll be around the paint and the same can be said for Pharaoh Compton and Tae Simmons off the bench. In the first matchup Bennett was also chasing around Reese Dixon-Waters on the perimeter for a while, who is one of SDSU’s two guards that can shoot along with Miles Byrd. Should be tough sledding on the boards for Khaden tonight.