CBB PrizePicks Plays for 2/10

Kingston Flemings has hung right around his 5.5 projection for each of his last 5 games, getting either 5 or 6 in all of them. Today he gets to face a Utah team that has had an awful paint defense all season. For as bad of a defensive squad as the Utes are, they do a solid job of getting the ball out of the hands of his usage guards. A big part of that is the fact that they very often double the PNR ball handler and do a poor job in rotating to the rolling big. Whether it happens to be Tugler, Cenac, or even Sahko off the bench, Flemings should be looking to facilitate into the paint early and often. 

In what I would say is the most comparable matchup in terms of PNR usage with aggressive bigs, Christian Anderson had 12 assists in their matchup against the Utes about a month ago. He’s not the only one either, as Melvin Council, Jaden Bradley, Rob Wright, and Barrington Hargress have all also hit their assist numbers against this team. And they are really the only guards with the ball in their hands enough to do so that they’ve faced in conference play. Let Kingston be CP3 in an open game.

Fading a guy’s rebounds who has the last name Glass, ironic. Thankfully he’s a 6’3” guard and not a 7 foot big on the block. He didn’t have a chart on props.cash today for whatever reason, but I’ll tell you that he’s green the last 2 games, with 4 and 5 each against Santa Clara and Oregon State. But the Zags should pose a tougher matchup for him just like the first time around. When Wazzu and the Zags first matched up on 1/15, Glass finished with 2 rebounds and neither of them should’ve been his. One of them was a shot that Adria Rodriguez actually fully rebounded then dropped off of his own foot for Glass to then pick up. The other also involved Rodriguez, but this time it was him getting into a tipping match with Graham Ike where he swatted it multiple times and sent it off the backboard and across the other side of the rim to fall right in Glass’ hands.

One of the reasons he wasn’t involved was because of how active the Zags guards are on the boards. They don’t just leave it up to Ike, they all crash hard especially now with Braden Huff still out. Everyone in their starting five had at least four rebounds, and Tyon Grant-Foster even came off the bench with five himself, which is exactly his season average. Wazzu also has ND Okafor who is not a perimeter threat (hasn’t even attempted a three in his four years of CBB). So he will likely be battling with Ike down there which forces the rest of the Zags to be even more active on the boards themselves (on both sides, the Zags had 17 offensive boards in that first game too). 

So while I think they should just outmuscle him, I don’t think he’ll be in great position either. They essentially hunted him in the first game and brought him into every action along with switching on it, which consistently left him stranded on the perimeter. They also found success in the first half running a zone, which left him guarding the corners yet rarely in position for the weak side boards. I’d think it’s decently likely we see that at some point tonight. If he’s able to get the bounces in this one I’ll tip cap.