CBB PrizePicks Plays for 1/28

Another day on the CBB hardwood for some PrizePicks squares. Figure the start of these articles would be good spots to glaze or complain about the previous days squares for a little recap, so we'll start doing that.

Honor Huff shouldn't have been as hard as it was, just a terrible game to watch. Neither team could buy a bucket and despite that he started draining threes before halftime. Had little involvement in the 2H however, but did enough in the end with some legacy free throws. Henley was a horrid try, however. Did not anticipate the extent of GCU's injuries that were announced pretty close to gametime which all but eliminated him from being able to defend Corey Camper. They needed him on the court and Dusty Stromer was forced into the starting lineup who had enough size for the task.

But 1-1 on those, would love to stack some greenery. 4 squares today with a sneak bonus 5th in this first game.

George Mason’s defense is a nightmare for a slashing guard. Scovens stands at 6’6” and uses his size and strength to get to the rim against a lot of backcourts that don’t quite have that. One of the reasons George Mason hasn’t allowed many guards to get to the rim is because they have plenty of size to defend just that. I could list all of the guards with similar styles to Scovens that have struggled getting to the rim, but with George Mason’s schedule you likely know none of their names outside of VT’s Neoklis Avdalas, who is a pretty loose comparison as is.

Outside of 6’2” Kory Mincy (who will likely be chasing Parker Friedrichsen around), the rest of the Patriots’ starting 5 all stands 6’5” or taller. They force teams to beat them with either perimeter shooting or tough shotmaking from their bigs. I don’t think Scovens has a big enough role in this matchup to score double digits.

Scovens has taken 13 and 11 shots in the past two games, a huge uptick in what his role typically is. Prior to those games he hadn’t taken double digit shots in seven straight games dating back to December 13th vs Mercyhurst. I think that volume shrinks tonight in favor of 3PT shooters. Honorable mention to Parker Freidrichsen, who has a 1.5 3PTM square after an 0-7 in those two games. You know we love our double bagels here, especially when it lines up with the actual basketball reasoning. More Parker and less Scovens tonight.

It’s always fun getting to bet on goats, and we have another one here. This one is a pretty simple read I’m taking a shot at. The LSU 3PT defense has been atrocious, allowing teams to shoot just under 35% from deep. That’s good for 229th in the country, and worse than anyone in the SEC not named Missouri. A lot of that volume has also been taken at the top of the key, which just so happens to be where Josh Hubbard loves to take his off the dribble threes. 

Hubbard’s last 3 games include lines of 1-5, 2-8, and again 2-8 from deep. So like most guys I’ll back he’s coming off of some rough performances and in a great matchup. Unlike most years, LSU is a pretty big team too. They’re big enough elsewhere where they can’t really afford to put anyone other than Dedan Thomas on Hubbard or else it’ll be barbecue chicken. I’m sure you’ll see a few doubles and denials to try and keep Hubbard from getting his shots up, but I ultimately don’t think whatever Coach McMahon cooks up will be enough. Perfect time for Josh to fill it up.

A great couple of game for Edmonds as of late, including his career high 23 Pts & 10 Reb against Baylor in TCU’s last game. The paint defenses of Baylor and Oklahoma St are night and day different compared to this Houston team though. A Houston team that I’m sure got an earful from Coach Sampson after a pitiful defensive performance in their loss against Texas Tech where they surrendered 90 points. That is the most a Kelvin Sampson team has given up in a conference game since 2018.

Edmonds is a tough shotmaker at the rim. He uses his body well to finish through contact, especially against smaller defenders. The problem with that is he wont see any smaller defenders tonight. Whether Houston chooses to put 6’8” JoJo Tugler on him or 6’11” Chris Cenac on him, it’ll be tough sledding in the paint for Edmonds to both score and rebound.

TCU is the smallest power conference team in the country, and credit to Jamie Dixon as he’s done a decent job scheming up for bigger teams this year. But that hasn’t involved many big showings from Edmonds. He was held to 7/3/2 vs Arizona, 2/0/0 vs Florida (8 mins - foul trouble), and 4/3/1 vs Michigan. Now does Houston have the pure size of those teams? Not exactly, but the physicality and Sampson scheme makes it just as difficult to face in my opinion.

The foul trouble from that Florida game shouldn’t be ignored either. Edmonds has real trouble staying on the court, that wasn’t just a one time thing. He has 4+ fouls in 10 of TCU’s 20 games this year. In what will likely be the most physical game for the Frogs all year (if not at least in Big 12 play), I’d be surprised to not see him headed to the bench because of fouls at some point.

One of the best freshmen in the country Ebuka Okorie is coming off an absolute stinker against Cal in his last game. Tallied 14 points but 12 of those came from the FT line as he shot an atrocious 1-16 from the field and 0-9 from three. Potentially some trickle down effect starting to hit Okorie and the Stanford offense after losing Chisom Okpara for the year a few games ago. This offense has really become Okorie or nothing, and teams have schemed him up well in the past two games. So while this has the potential to be a bumpy sweat with the likely number of different looks Miami will throw at him, it’s hard to imagine Stanford has success in many other places. 

The teeth of the Miami defense lies in the paint, as the trio of Reneau, Udeh, and Henderson have been nothing short of fantastic. None of the Stanford bigs have been giving them much offensively and I don’t see that changing much tonight. Jeremy Dent-Smith has been the only other offensive spark for the Cardinal lately, which could benefit Okorie. Guard creation and tough shotmaking is likely going to decide the outcome in this one, and if you’ve watched Okorie all year you know this is his bread and butter. After a couple rough games, I’m willing to pay to find out if this Canes backcourt has enough answers for him.