CBB PrizePicks Plays for 1/26

Fading what has become the #1 play on the PrizePicks popular tab but not just for that reason. Conwell averages 5.1 RPG on the season and has eclipsed this 5.5 number in his last five games. Included in those five games is the first matchup against Duke where he grabbed 7 boards. Duke has been a tough rebounding matchup for guards all year, so I was curious about exactly how Conwell grabbed these boards and went back to watch them all. 

(I’m sure there’s a way to clip them and throw them in here but a bit short on time to figure that out, feel free to watch back the game VOD on ESPN+ if you wanna see for yourself)

#1: Ngongba 3PTA that bounced to the FT line, fumbled by Boozer

#2: Cayden Boozer missed FT

#3: Ngongba missed layup tipped out by Hadley to Conwell

#4: Maliq Brown missed dunk, bounced hard off rim outside the paint

#5: Khamenia missed FT

#6: Foster missed FT

#7: Foster missed FT

A couple things are apparent in watching these. 4/7 rebounds were off of Duke misses at the charity stripe. Now Duke only shoots 71% from the line (202nd in CBB) so I won’t play the “they won’t miss as many this game” angle, but if he’s able to replicate 4 boards lining up as the defender closest to the shooter I’ll tip cap.

Another thing was that 2 of these came from Ngongba. He started and got ran off the floor quickly in the first game, only tallying 10 mins. They tried to use his size but it was very apparent the game was too fast for him. I’d be surprised to see a lot of him tonight, as it should be a lot more of Boozer small ball at the 5 and Maliq Brown, who has been a beast on the boards in limited minutes.

Then the bounces. Out of his three rebounds from FGA, the only one he was actually in good position for was the Brown missed dunk. And that was only because Brown got rim stuffed on an easy one from the dunker spot and it took a crazy bounce. The first board hit the floor and bounced up into Boozer’s hands and he just bobbled it right into Conwell. And the other was a battle between Hadley and Ngongba that was tipped out to his hands because of the collision.

It’s impossible to say it’s all luck because he’s consistently put himself around the ball for five straight games to get these numbers. But it’s hard to get as many bounces as Conwell did in the first Duke game. His rebound chances aren't drastically different in some of the other four games of this stretch either. Got some crazy bounces, especially coming from teams trying to outshoot Louisville form deep and beat them at their own game. If he can do it again in this matchup I’ll simply tip cap.

This one is a little different than Conwell. We aren’t betting on some lucky bounce regression, but this is more just a play on his rebound profile. Unlike some of the other guards we’ve faded, Rob Wright actually gets in the paint and puts a body on guys down there. His positioning and physicality is actually pretty impressive for a guard who stands at 6’1” 183.

Disastrous matchup for that however. Wright’s last three matchups of TCU, Texas Tech, and Utah have allowed that to work. TCU is an average rebounding team but also happen to be the smallest team in CBB. TCU’s two leading rebounders David Punch and Xavier Edmonds played limited minutes dealing with foul trouble all game. Utah is god awful, ranking 242nd in rebounding in CBB right below the Rice Owls if that gives you any idea. Texas Tech is a solid rebounding team, ranking just outside the top 50. But the biggest challenge is for whoever matches up against JT Toppin, not as much the guards. 

Arizona is the #1 team (and one of the handful of toughest rebound matchups for guards) in the country for a reason. It’s their size, strength, length, and athleticism. Krivas is a monster down low and will be able to sit in the paint because Keita is not a perimeter threat. Koa Peat adds some beef in the paint at 6’8” as does Ivan Kharchenkov, who isn’t the biggest rebounder of the three but makes it tough to get by him at 6'7". Can’t forget about Arizona’s leading rebounder (9.8 RPG!) off the bench Tobe Awaka either. 

Jaden Bradley will likely see the most time on Wright, and he’s one of the reasons it’s tough for guards to even get to the paint. He prides on his defense and the little things, and he’s been fantastic at boxing out and allowing the bigs (and even Brayden Burries who is averaging 6.6 RPG in B12 play) to bang on the glass. Should be a real tough ask for Wright on the glass tonight and I’ll be paying to find out.