CBB PrizePicks Plays for 1/24

The freshman Deshawn Gory is coming off of a career high night with 31 pts, 14 reb, and 5 ast last game against New Mexico. Obviously want to fade him after that in what should be a much slower grind of a game against GCU, who ranks 223rd in CBB in pace compared to New Mexico’s 127th rank. Big news on the injury front for Fresno, as point guard Zaon Collins is no longer listed on the injury report. So he should be active today after missing the New Mexico game. 

Gory pretty much played point forward the whole game without Collins and had the ball in his hands constantly, skyrocketing his usage all night. The Fresno lineup was him, Heidbreder (who struggled doing much of anything all night), bigs that can’t score, and perimeter shooters who struggled to shoot against the best 3PT defense in the conference. It was literally Gory or nothing for most of the game. And despite that his numbers are still a bit deceiving. 13 of his 31 points came in the last 3:04 when New Mexico was up double digits and visibly took their foot off the gas defensively.

But after all that now he gets to face a GCU team that will likely throw Nana  Owuse-Anane at him, an extremely disruptive veteran defender at 6’8 240 who can also get out to the perimeter very well. Gory should have much more trouble winning isolation matchups and may have to rely on his outside shooting. The good news is 4 of his 6 3PTM in conference play came in that last New Mexico game. With Collins back, this one may rest more on his shoulders today.

Not buying into Assane Diop’s latest “hot” streak. He has been inserted into the starting lineup and averaged 23.6 MPG over USD’s last five games. Maybe he earned more minutes but I think it was more matchup driven. They utilize Diop as a stretch five, so the matchups of Wazzu, Seattle, Pacific, Pepperdine, and non-D1 Bethesda (lol) either included other stretch bigs or immobile bigs that allowed Diop to serve some purpose in those games. 

Him being labeled as a stretch big himself is also a stretch, no pun intended. While he is shooting 44% from deep this year, he’s only taken 18 threes and has made multiple threes in a game just once. Most of his shooting output comes off of putbacks and looks that just kind of fall into his lap against smaller or slower defenders. Now enter Santa Clara, who has already played this team. The Broncos have 7’1 Bukky Oboye and Elijah Mahi manning the paint as well as freshman Allen Graves off the bench. A group that has put together one of the best paint defenses in the WCC.

In that first matchup, USD elected to start Vuk Boskovic and Alejandro Aviles as the two bigs, something they’ve seemingly done against most bigger teams they’ve faced this season. Diop played just 10 mins (all in the 2nd half) and matched up with Graves, whose physicality he really struggled with. Should be tough sledding for Diop against this defense and with how many different lineup combinations Coach Lavin likes to throw together it wouldn’t shock me to see his minutes simply not be there tonight.