Can't believe it's the last week of the CFB regular season. It nearly brings a tear to my eye before I look at the slate (both Friday and Saturday) and start salivating at all of the amazing games with playoff implications ahead of us. And some of them start on Black Friday, an annual tradition. We get a small taste of the full Saturday slate which means we do the same on the PrizePicks board with a few plays...

I am a loyal fader of this Miss St run defense, the 14th worst unit in the country. The only problem with this one is that Kewan Lacy is coming off 31 carries for 224 yards against Florida in Ole Miss’ last game. That’s a button I simply can’t push.

But then it dawned on me: this is the Egg Bowl. Not just any Egg Bowl, but one with Lane Kiffin controversy painted all over it. Lane’s RB just ran for his season high while he has slowed down the designed QB run playcalling the last two games. Chambliss has only ran for 9 combined yards the last two weeks. Why was that? Because the games included the aforementioned Lacy sploogefest and a game against the CItadel where you obviously don’t need to put him at risk.

You think Lane is just gonna do what makes sense and feed Lacy after a career game against the worst rush defense in the SEC who also happens to be their most bitter rival. Of course not, he’s gonna get cute and pull out all the exotic packages to get Trinidad on the move. And we will be there for all 50+ yards.

For those who haven’t watched Denegal and the Aztecs pass attack, let me fill you in. They don’t throw it often, but they do throw it deep. To illustrate that, Denegal has only thrown for 200+ yards three times this season yet has a longest completion of 40+ yards in eight of them. So essentially there’s no intermediate game. It’s either bombs or they run the ball.

The last two weeks in particular he threw only 10 times for 17 yards in a monsoon against Boise St and 16 times for 81 yards in a game the defense dominated against San Jose St. The reason is a combination of things including how stout their defense has been and how incredible RB1 Lucky Sutton has been. This week’s matchup against New Mexico is one where he should have to sling the rock a bit more.

New Mexico’s run defense has been damn good, only allowing 105 rush yds/gm which is good for 17th in the country. Their secondary allows plenty of explosives through the air however, which is perfect for Denegal’s boom or bust approach. As much as I love Lucky Sutton, I think SDSU has a tough time trying to finish drives with his legs. They’re gonna need a Denegal bomb in the endzone to open up that defense, and I think that's exactly what they get.

I like the pass TD more than the yards, but will have exposure to both due to the fact that I think they’ll have to stack a few deep shots rather than just have one. FWIW, Denegal has thrown over this 138.5 number five times this year and those games are responsible for seven of his eight passing TDs. So likely some correlation there.