Texas vs NC State: How to Make Money Betting This First Four Matchup

Tonight’s First Four matchup in Dayton between the No. 11 Texas Longhorns (18-14) against the No. 11 NC State Wolfpack (20-13) should be absolute cinema. Two evenly matched big-name schools battle it out for a chance to even play in the tournament. While both teams averaged around 83.8 and 83.7 points per game this season and allowed roughly 76.8 and 76.5 respectively, the betting total sits at 158.5 for good reason—and sharp money is pounding the under. This contest projects for a grind-it-out affair in the low-to-mid 140s, not the offensive fireworks some previews anticipate.

Start with pace and style. Texas, under coach Sean Miller, operates at one of the slower tempos in the country (KenPom adjusted tempo around 66.9 possessions). Guards Jordan Pope (senior, elite scorer from deep) and Tramon Mark (graduate transfer) dictate half-court sets, while versatile wing Dailyn Swain (junior G/F, SEC Newcomer of the Year candidate with 17+ PPG, 7+ RPG, and league-leading steals) thrives in physical, low-possession games. Swain’s length and defensive instincts disrupt transition, forcing opponents into inefficient sets. NC State, coached by Will Wade, plays slightly faster but still faces a deliberate Texas outfit that neutralizes quick strikes.

Defensive efficiency seals the deal. Both squads rank inside the top 100 in adjusted defensive efficiency (NC State around 86th, Texas near 112th). The Wolfpack’s frontcourt—led by Ven-Allen Lubin (senior forward, rim protector with blocks and rebounding) and Scottie Ebube (senior 6’10” center)—clogs the paint and contests shots effectively. Darrion Williams (senior forward, transfer from Texas Tech, double-double threat) and Quadir Copeland (senior guard, All-ACC caliber playmaker with steals) provide perimeter disruption, while Paul McNeil Jr. (sophomore guard) and Tre Holloman (senior guard) limit second-chance opportunities. Texas counters with its own interior anchors: 7’0” sophomore center Matas Vokietaitis, freshman Declan Duru Jr. (6’8” forward with length), and junior Camden Heide (transfer forward). These bigs battle for every rebound, slowing the game to a crawl and turning possessions into contested jumpers or turnovers.

Tournament pressure amplifies the slowdown. This is a true elimination game on a neutral floor—no home-court shooting inflation, no fan energy to spark runs. Both teams enter shaky: Texas dropped three straight, NC State stumbled late in the ACC. Coaches like Miller and Wade, known for meticulous prep, will emphasize half-court defense over up-tempo risks. Their earlier regular-season clash (Texas 102-97 win) featured hot outside shooting and transition buckets that won’t repeat under March spotlight. History shows First Four games often trend under when elite defenses collide in low-stakes venues.

Rebounding and turnover battles further cap scoring. Lubin and Williams will contest Texas’ frontcourt (Vokietaitis, Duru Jr., and Swain), limiting putbacks. Copeland’s steals and Pope’s ball security keep possessions short and inefficient. Expect 65-68 total possessions, with each side grinding out 72-76 points through grit rather than explosion—think 74-72 final, comfortably under 158.5.

In short, forget the season scoring averages. The combination of Texas’ deliberate pace, dual top-100 defenses, paint-clogging bigs like Matas Vokietaitis and Ven-Allen Lubin, and two-way standouts Dailyn Swain and Quadir Copeland makes this a classic under play. The First Four’s intensity turns offenses into half-court slogfests. Smart bettors take the under tonight—expect a defensive masterclass that keeps the scoreboard quiet.