Steaks favorite look on the total tonight.

I am on FSU tonight. I have basically gone against everything I have ever known when it comes to sports gambling. As we often say on The Board Review, “Don’t bet on idiot fuck-faced morons,” and I fear Mike Norvell is exactly that.

But I am not here to pitch you FSU. Instead, I want to talk about a read I have on the total.

Everyone has said, “Oh, if FSU wins this game, it HAS to be low-scoring.”

NOT SO FAST, my friend.

Has anyone ever thought maybe FSU didn’t show a whole lot against New Mexico State? Maybe Norvell knew he had this big game against SMU on deck and didn’t want to put anything meaningful on tape. Maybe we get a completely different look from this FSU offense tonight.

Let me tell you why I think it’s possible.

SMU wasn’t all that good defensively last year, allowing almost 400 yards per game. They aren’t any better this year. Matter of fact, I believe they could be significantly worse, returning only 3 starters and not returning a single player who had more than 2 sacks last year.

What does that tell me?

FSU should be able to run the ball, and Ashton Daniels should have time in the pocket. If you give Daniels time, suddenly this FSU offense has opportunities to create explosive plays downfield. Deuce Robinson is also 7 inches taller than anyone in SMU’s secondary, so he should be a mismatch all night long.

This doesn’t need to be some elite FSU offense. They just need to consistently move the football and finish drives.

Now, SMU’s offense? That’s where there is much more to be excited about.

They return 7 starters, including veteran star QB Kevin Jennings. Jennings has played a ton of football, knows this offense, and SMU should have absolutely no problem playing aggressively if FSU starts putting points on the board. I fully expect SMU to hold up their end of the scoring.

That’s ultimately why I like the over.

I think everyone is looking at this game backward. Instead of asking whether FSU can drag SMU into an ugly, low-scoring game, maybe we should be asking whether FSU’s offense is better than what we saw last week.

If it is, this game could turn into a shootout quickly.

And to the people who think FSU can only compete and win this game if it’s low-scoring, I’d recommend they dig a little deeper.

GIVE ME POINTS.