Red Sox vs Athletics: Why Payton Tolle Might Struggle on Monday

Payton Tolle is going to struggle on Monday night against the Athletics, when the public least expects it. I will be taking his less than 16.5 pitching outs on PrizePicks Monday night against the Athletics at Sutter Health Park.

The 23-year-old Red Sox left-hander enters with a solid overall line of 5-6, 3.31 ERA, and 1.10 WHIP across 89.2 innings, but his recent workload points clearly toward a shorter outing. In his last start versus Baltimore he completed just 5.2 innings while throwing 88 pitches and allowing four runs. The start before that against the Mets lasted only 3.2 innings. He is very inconsistent in his early years as a starter, and his season average sits closer to five innings pitched in many games.

Tolle has shown the ability to miss bats (96 strikeouts), yet the Athletics’ offense, while inconsistent as a 44-61 club, still generates enough contact and traffic to push pitch counts higher early. Sutter Health Park and the West Coast road setting add another layer of caution for a young starter still being carefully managed by the Red Sox. Boston has been protective with his pitch volume throughout the season, rarely pushing him deep when the game situation or early baserunners appear.

Even in stronger outings earlier this year, Tolle has frequently been lifted in the sixth rather than stretched for a full quality start. The expectation remains a controlled 80-90 pitch outing that lands him around five innings. That projection comfortably supports less than 16.5 pitching outs. The combination of recent short starts, conservative usage, and a matchup that can produce early baserunners makes the less-than side the logical PrizePicks selection for Tolle on Monday. Don’t be surprised when he gets the early hook and the Athletics bats knock him out of this game before the public anticipates.