Pirates vs Astros: The Best Bet to Make on Wednesday’s MLB Slate

The Pittsburgh Pirates enter Wednesday’s matchup in Houston as road favorites on the runline at +110 odds. Paul Skenes is showing signs of locking back in after a rough patch in May. He took the loss in his final three May starts, posting a 5.87 ERA over 15.1 innings with elevated hits allowed, but the underlying stuff remains elite. I’m willing to bet Skenes shoves on the road tonight.

Skenes struck out 10 in a strong outing against the Cubs on May 28 (despite the loss) and dominated earlier with a near no-hitter against Colorado. His strikeout rate stays dominant, and velocity/command are trending up. On the road against a struggling Astros lineup (27-35 overall), expect Skenes to go deep and limit damage, giving the Pirates a serious chance to win by 2+ runs.

On the flip side, Spencer Arrighetti is the luckiest starting pitcher in baseball right now and a prime “sell high” candidate. His sparkling 7-1 record and 1.34 ERA (through 47 IP) mask serious regression risks. He sports a .210-.212 BABIP, while his xFIP sits around 4.92, and xERA in the mid-4s. His underlying metrics show average-to-below command and contact management despite the low ERA. This is the perfect time to fade Arrighetti. 

Houston’s bullpen and defense can only prop him up for so long. The Pirates boast a solid OPS against righties this season (top-6 in MLB) with contributors like Brandon Lowe, Ryan O’Hearn, and Oneil Cruz providing pop. With the total on the rise from 7.5 to 8, I’m expecting some runs in this contest, mainly from the Pirates. 

Pittsburgh sits at 33-28 and has momentum as a hotter team, while Houston ranks near the bottom of the AL West with offensive woes. Skenes’ ability to generate whiffs pairs well against a Houston squad prone to strikeouts. The +110 price offers really good value on the runline—and since they’re the road team, they’re guaranteed to get 9 innings of at bats. I strongly prefer betting favorites on the runline when they are on the road, specifically for this reason.

Skenes’ rebound potential, Arrighetti’s unsustainable luck, Pittsburgh’s righty-mashing bats, and Houston’s struggles make this the perfect spot to fade the Astros and back the Pirates on the runline. Back the Pirates to cover; I’ll meet you at the cash counter when they win by 2+ runs.