NFL TNF W10: Caleb's Ten Expectations

1) Divisional matchup here on primetime, with chance of rain on the horizon. These two met in Week 5, where the result was a 27-27 draw, marking the only tie of the season. Since that game, the Commanders have lost two key offensive pieces in Terry McLaurin and Jacory Croskey-Merritt -- both on IR.

Rachaad White now commands the backfield, yet has notched just one game with 10+ carries since Croskey-Merritt went down, and that was a 17 point victory over the Eagles.

2) White is facing a struggling Giants' rush defense, that ranks 27th in YPC and 29th in OPP Explosive Rate. On the season amongst backs with 20+ carries, White has ranked below average in Yds Before Carry per attempt at just 1.87; The Giants, who are giving up 2.87 YBC/Att (28th), provides the perfect opportunity for WSH to get their ground game going.

Last week, Saquon was the first back since Week 1 to have 10+ carries vs The Giants and fail to have at least 60+ Rush Yds.

3) Jayden Daniels has had just 4 designed runs on the season, and none of them have came in the last three weeks. That seems problematic, especially as he ran for 103 yards against the Giants in Week 5. The Giants have allowed the 4th most scrambles this season, notably to these mobile QBs:
- Milton 9 Carries, 64 Yds
- Shough 5 Carries, 32 Yds

Daniels is priced at 5.5 Rush Att (-120), his shortest odds in that market on the season. Interestingly, his 38.5 Rush Yds is tied for the highest mark.

4) Treylon Burks is suiting up here, despite notching just one practice (Limited, on Tuesday) this week. The current snap share leader in this Commanders' receiver room is Antonio Williams, who is running over half of his routes from the slot alongside Stefon Diggs; The out wide guys include Burks and Van Jefferson.

The Giants are allowing the 3rd highest TPRR to slot receivers, yet the 4th lowest YPRR as well.

5) The Giants' coverage unit, similar to last year, is running a Top 5 rate of Man Coverage. This actually has been much more effective than prior years given they are 4th best in Time to Throw, not giving route runners time to win their route and hence why they are forcing so many scrambles.

Jayden Daniels has faced just two teams who are above average in Time To Throw:
- 274 Pass Yds vs The Rams (16 RuYds)
- 300 Pass Yds vs The 49ers (10 RuYds)

These were his two best passing performances, and his worst rushing. The Rams are also heavy in man coverage.

6) Both Cam Skattebo and JJ McCarthy seem good to go here after notching full practices on Tuesday and Wednesday. Off the bat, this is pretty tough for fantasy managers with Isaiah Likely, who has had his target rate cut by well more than half when McCarthy is at the helm (compared to Winston).

7) Skattebo ran 17 times in his last game after being benched the week prior and not logging a single rush attempt. No real reason why he can't continue to be a bruiser here, as The Commanders have ranked Top 10 at limiting YPC and Explosive Runs, yet B10 in STUFF%. A lot of carries, short but worthy gains.

The Rams ran 26 times between Kyren/Corum, while Eagles saw 24 from Mitchell/Saquon (lost by 17), and 49ers had 25 from McCaffrey/Black. NYG not a huge ground-committee team, so expect Skattebo to absorb a heavy bulk of carries.

8) Washington's pass defense is running zone coverage on 80.2% of drop backs, which is the 2nd highest rate in the league. This was a necessary change after they were getting picked apart in man coverage all year, now with a refurbished CB room. This zone is typically featuring 2-HI safety looks.

McCarthy is sitting 10th best in Yds/DB against 2-HI looks, though worth noting that this is off just 12 total drop backs. Likely and Nabers have each had 30+ targets against 2-HI, while no other NYG player has surpassed half of that, though the revolving door of QBs makes this less relevant.

9/10) KICKERS AND TRENDS!

The Giants have given up just 1.4 Field Goal Attempts per game this season, which is the 2nd fewest in the league. This actually is not a good stat, given they are allowing the highest RedZone TD scoring rate at 79%. The bulk of RZ TDs they have allowed have been to pass catchers.

Team's who have won at least 2 consecutive games and now face off on TNF with an O/U set under 50 are 10-0 ATS in the last 10 sampled. Giants are -2.5, which is also where near 90% of the money is.