NFL MNF W9: Caleb's Ten Expectations

1) Two 6-1 teams square off on Monday Night, with the Vikings -- now with Carson Wentz at the helm -- hosting the Bills. While some suspect the Vikings' QB change was a benching, Murray's official injury designation is a grade 2 hamstring strain. Outside of Jauan Jennings, the Vikings injury report is clear.

In a dome tonight, so no weather concerns.

2) Two of the Buffalo offensive front in Anderson (ankle) and Dawkins (rib) are questionable. Dawkins has not logged a practice all week, while Anderson got up to being a limited participant on Saturday.

This is especially problematic against the most blitz happy defense in the league; The Vikings have blitzed on 69% of QB dropbacks, which is more than double the next highest. As you could imagine, this translates to league-high hurry rates (12.3%) and pressure rates (35.3%).

3) James Cook III is all set to go here after a head/back injury scare last week against the Ravens. He has the chance here to tie his own franchise record of consecutive games with 1+ TD and 100+ Scrimmage Yds.

Minnesota suffered it's first loss of the season last week against Detroit, which was fueled by 153 Rush Yds from Jahmyr Gibbs. They have been defensively weaker towards the rush, ranking 29th in explosive rate, 25th in YPC and 26th in broken tackle rate.

4) In turn, expecting Josh Allen to regret a bit in passing metrics. The Vikings have given up just 1,261 total passing yards this season -- fewest in the league. Only Jordan Love, on the very first game of the season, logged >220 passing yards. Every QB to throw at least 20 times against this defense has also thrown at least one interception.

Allen is 3rd in the league in scramble rate when facing pressure (18.3%). Despite having the 4th highest Time to Throw, he is just 16th in Yds/DB and 42nd in completion rate. Once again, if the Bills offensive line is injured, this pressure can be problematic.

5) Vikings' secondary is running the 5th highest rate of zone coverage, while allowing the lowest completion rate (57.7%) when doing so. More specifically, they are 4th in 2-HI safety looks, and Top 5 in Cover 2 Rate.

Amongst guys with >40% route share, the Bills' TPRR rankings vs 2-HI:
- DJ Moore 0.31 TPRR // 38.7% Air Yards
- Shakir 0.21 TPRR
- Cook III 0.16 TPRR
- Kincaid 0.16 TPRR
- Coleman 0.14 TPRR // 0 TD, 0 RZ Targets (10 Routes)

6) The TE room of Kincaid and Knox each suffer further against Cover 2, down to 0.11 TPRR and 0.05 TPRR respectively. The Vikings are only allowing Top 10 target rates to slot receivers, furthering bolstering the Shakir stock, yet the pairing aDOT is Bottom 10 at just 8.3 yards.

As my inclination is already to fade the Buffalo passing game, Kincaid and Coleman emerge as the likely candidates.

7) Jordan Mason returned from injury last week, though played just 28% of snaps after logging 45% and 64% the first two weeks of the season. He has some boom potential given his redzone share, yet The Bills' rush defense has rebounded significantly from prior seasons, sitting Top 10 in STUFF% and YPC.

I will note that Buffalo hasn't faced the most quality of RB rooms, though did hold Kyren/Corum, Jeanty and Gibbs sub 3.5 YPC.

8) In those games, Stafford, Cousins and Goff all threw for 310+ Pass Yards. Carson Wentz is not quite in this tier of QB, nor have that elite of an RB room, but his only full game this season against Chicago was during heavy rain.

Wentz played just three games last season with >90% of offensive snaps, and averaged 299.7 Pass Yds off of 41 Attempts per game.

9) Bills coverage unit is a complete mixed bag of looks, not ranking top 10 in any of the major categories of Man/Zone/1-HI/2-HI. Instead, we'll look at the overall stats for this pass defense:
- 27th in TTT (2.71)
- 16th in Yds/DB (6.43)
- 27th in Pass TD (15)

The question of the day is can Justin Jefferson get going? Excluding Fagnano-led Ravens, opposing WR1s have gotten theirs vs Buffalo:
- Tucker 5 Rec for 97 Yds // Mayer 5-93
- Puka Nacua 17 Rec, 138 Yds // Higbee 5-83
- Doubs 6 Rec, 58 Yds // Henry 5-62

Seemingly both Jefferson and Hockenson can thrive here.

10) Kickers and Trends!

Both teams are sitting just above average in OPP Field Goal Attempts per game. Minnesota has been easily the best RedZone defense in terms of scoring percentage, with offenses scoring a TD on just 25% of RZ trips.

Buffalo is allowing 4.1 RedZone Scoring Att per game (31st), while MIN is allowing just 2.3 (3rd).