Ole Miss running back Kewan Lacy has delivered a breakout 2025 season, piling up roughly 1,464 yards and 23 touchdowns on 295 carries, averaging a solid 5.0 yards per attempt and over 104 yards per game. His explosive runs and scoring ability powered the Rebels' offense all year. However, in Thursday's Fiesta Bowl semifinal against Miami, Lacy faces an uphill battle to eclipse his 78.5-yard PrizePicks line. A nightmare matchup, unfavorable game script, and schematic tendencies all point firmly to the under.

Miami's defensive front ranks among the nation's elite run-stoppers. The Hurricanes allowed just 83-84 rushing yards per game in 2025—one of the lowest marks in FBS—while ranking top-5 in opponent yards per carry (around 2.8). Loaded with future NFL talent like Akheem Mesidor and a deep rotation of disruptive linemen, Miami excels at generating tackles for loss and clogging interior lanes. This unit stonewalls power runs and contains speed to the edge, suffocating even the best backs. Lacy thrives against softer fronts, but against physical, gap-sound defenses like this, his production dips sharply. Expect Miami to stack the box early, dare Trinidad Chambliss to beat them through the air, and limit Lacy's yards after contact.

Game script further crushes Lacy's volume. Miami's own ground attack, spearheaded by Mark Fletcher Jr., exploits Ole Miss's middling rush defense (allowing over 4.5 yards per carry in spots). The Hurricanes can control the clock with long, grinding drives, putting Ole Miss in early deficits. The Rebels’ offense is pass-heavy—top-10 in passing yards per game—and they’ll abandon the run quickly when trailing. In negative scripts this season, Lacy's carry share dropped noticeably, with Chambliss airing it out 40+ times in comeback attempts. A Miami lead forces exactly that: more dropbacks, fewer handoffs, and garbage-time passes over meaningful rushes. 

Playoff semifinals often turn conservative and low-possession, reducing total rushing attempts across the board. Both teams boast stingy red-zone defenses, potentially leading to field goals over touchdown drives that eat carries. Lacy shares some touches in committee situations, and while he's the bell cow, high-stakes games see coaches leaning on passing to exploit mismatches. Recent trends against top-25 defenses show Lacy averaging less yards against tougher opponents, with efficiency dropping below 4.5 ypc.

In a physical battle where Miami dictates the tempo and disrupts at the line, Lacy struggles to find room. Look for 15-20 carries topping out around 65-70 yards—well under the 78.5 number on PrizePicks. The matchup and script align perfectly for a capped performance from Ole Miss's star back.