What a weird college football playoffs we’ve had. Whichever coach wins the National Championship it will be their first, meaning a ton of pressure on them over the next couple of weeks. The first game of the semifinals takes place in Arizona, between the Miami Hurricanes and the Ole Miss Rebels. Which team survives and advances? How are we making money on this game? I’ve got you covered…

Miami's ground game, led by Mark Fletcher Jr., exploits a vulnerable Ole Miss rush defense. Fletcher rushed for 947 yards and 10 touchdowns in 2025, averaging 5.3 yards per carry. Ole Miss ranked around 65th nationally in rushing defense, allowing over 4.5 yards per carry in key situations. The Hurricanes can lean on Fletcher to pound the rock, control the clock, and limit possessions. This run-heavy approach shortens the game, reduces explosive plays, and keeps the score down. Miami's offensive line dominates the line of scrimmage, setting up a grind-it-out script perfect for the under.

On the flip side, it's time to sell high on Ole Miss quarterback Trinidad Chambliss. The breakout star threw for 3,660 yards with 21 touchdowns and just three interceptions, adding 520 rushing yards and eight scores. He's been sensational, guiding the Rebels to the semifinals with poise and big plays. However, Miami's defense—one of the nation's elite units—presents a nightmare matchup. The Hurricanes boast a loaded defensive line stacked with future NFL talent, including disruptive players like Akheem Mesidor, Ahmad Moten and Rueben Bain Jr. This front seven generates consistent pressure, ranking among the top in sacks and tackles for loss. Chambliss thrives in clean pockets, but against Miami's pass rush, he'll face disruption, hurried throws, and potential turnovers. The Hurricanes' secondary capitalizes on mistakes, stifling Ole Miss's high-powered passing attack.

High-stakes playoff games often breed conservative gamescripts. Semifinals historically feature tighter much tighter gameplay: coaches prioritize ball security, avoid risks, and settle for field goals in the red zone. With a national championship berth on the line, expect both Pete Golding and Mario Cristobal to play it safe—more runs, fewer deep shots, and clock management that drags out drives without big points.

Additional factors bolster the under. Both teams excel in red-zone defense, forcing field goals rather than touchdowns. Miami's bend-but-don't-break style limits big plays, while Ole Miss struggles against physical fronts. Expect plenty of drives to stall out, settling for kicks.

In a matchup of strengths—Miami's run game and defensive line versus Ole Miss's aerial attack—the Hurricanes dictate tempo. This leads to a gritty, possession-dominated affair. Miami will dictate a slow tempo from the opening drive, leaning heavily on Mark Fletcher Jr. to exploit Ole Miss’s bottom-half rush defense (allowing 4.6+ ypc in conference play). Long, clock-chewing ground series will limit total possessions and keep explosive plays off the board early.

Ole Miss QB Trinidad Chambliss has thrived in clean pockets all season, but Miami’s NFL-loaded defensive front—among the nation’s best in sacks, TFLs, and havoc rate—will disrupt timing and force hurried throws before the Rebels settle in. Expect early three-and-outs or stalled drives while Ole Miss adjusts.

Playoff semifinals routinely start conservatively: coaches avoid early risks, prioritize field position, and lean on defense while reading the opponent. Recent CFP first halves have consistently featured lower scoring than full-game totals imply, with teams trading punts and settling for field goals. Both red-zone defenses are stingy, further capping touchdown chances. The combination of clock control, front-seven dominance, and cautious game scripts points to a grind-it-out first half that stays well under the 24.5 total.