With no NFL MNF game, we have to pivot somewhere else. Luckily, we have the FCS National Championship on Monday night. So, what’s the play? I’ve got you covered…

What a run it’s been for Illinois State, an unranked team that’s knocked off every opponent they’ve faced so far this postseason. Eventually, their luck has to run out, and their matchup against Montana State isn’t doing them any favors. 

The spread in this game opened around -9.5 and steamed to -10.5 on sharp money respecting the Bobcats' superiority. While Illinois State's Cinderella playoff run—four road wins, including upsets over NDSU and Villanova—captures hearts, Montana State is the far more complete team primed to pull away for a comfortable cover and their first FCS crown since 1984.

The Bobcats' ground-and-pound attack is a nightmare matchup. Montana State ranks top-3 in FCS rushing (over 250 YPG in playoffs), led by the tandem of Julius Davis (1,100+ yards, 8 TDs) and Adam Jones (1,047 yards, 15 TDs). Dual-threat QB Justin Lamson adds mobility, carving defenses in blowouts like the 48-23 semifinal thrashing of rival Montana. Illinois State's run defense has held up in upsets but bends at 4.2 yards per carry against lesser fronts; expect Montana State to control clock, tire the Redbirds, and gash for 300+ yards. 

Defensively, Brent Vigen's unit is elite—top-5 in yards allowed, stingy against the run (3.8 YPC), and opportunistic with 16 picks. Standout safety Caden Dowler (Big Sky Defensive POY, 6 INTs) anchors a secondary ready to feast on Illinois State QB Tommy Rittenhouse's occasional errancy in big spots. The Redbirds rely on balance and RB Victor Dawson (1,251 yards), but their close playoff wins (margins of 16, 11, 1, 18) came against flawed teams—Montana State's physicality represents a massive leap.

This is a classic "fairy tale ends here" spot. Illinois State, under veteran coach Brock Spack, has overachieved with grit but lacks Montana State's depth and athleticism. The Bobcats are battle-tested (losses only to P4 Oregon and South Dakota State), motivated after last year's title heartbreak, and peaking with blowout playoff margins.

Fade the public as they chase the underdog story, as the sharps hammer Montana State. Fade the hype—Bobcats dominate the trenches, and cover easily in a 42-20 type rout.