Futures Friday: Bet This Team To Miss The College Football Playoff

With only three weeks remaining in the college football regular season the scenarios are starting to come into focus in terms of conference championship weekend and the College Football Playoff. There is one team in particular that has vastly overachieved this season and right on the cusp of making the field, but I believe now is the right time to sell. 

Wake Forest was priced around -4000 before the season started to miss the playoff. It was not a hot take to say they were not going to be in the 12-team field. But give credit to Jake Dickert and Gio Lopez for carrying the Deacs to an impressive 8-1 start. Now they are essentially a coin flip to make the CFP, but that line doesn’t make much sense to me. Here is why. 

First of all, Wake Forest is a slight underdog this weekend at SMU. Last I checked the Mustangs were a 1.5-point favorite and Wake was around +100 to win the game outright. If SMU beats Wake Forest, they are out of the CFP and likely won’t even make it to the ACC Championship game. 

Second, even if Wake wins this weekend at SMU, wins at Georgia Tech next week, and beats Duke in the regular season finale to get into the ACC Championship, I still believe they need to beat Miami and win the conference title to get into the field. That is a lot of things that need to happen in order for me to lose a bet priced at -120. 

So why do I think Wake Forest has to win the ACC in order to get into the field? To answer that question I just need to remind you of what happened last year to BYU. The Cougars lost to Texas Tech in the regular season, then lost again to the Red Raiders in the Big 12 title game. The following week the CFP Committee left BYU out of the field. Those who forget history are doomed to repeat it. 

In case you forgot, Wake Forest already lost to Miami earlier this season, and if they win out will likely play the Hurricanes again in the ACC Championship game, where they will be a big underdog and likely lose again. Based on how much bias the committee has shown against conferences not named the SEC or Big 10, I do not see them awarding an at-large bid to a two-loss ACC team.

Here is another potential red flag that intrigues me for their game this week against SMU. Wake Forest just announced that Jake Dickert has signed a big contract extension to remain with the program. Call me superstitious, but announcing a deal like that two days before one of the biggest games of the season is a potential distraction. They should have announced it last week when they were playing Merrimack. 

I believe there are too many outs for Wake Forest to miss the field for this bet to be priced at -120. Sorry Deacs, you’ve had a great run this year, but I think you’re more likely to end up in the Pop Tarts Bowl like BYU did last year than the College Football Playoff.