Washington vs Illinois: The Best PrizePicks Square on the Board for Thursday Night

Thursday nights without football are brutal, but there is still plenty of college basketball to wager on and enjoy. There is a PrizePicks square I am falling in love with in Thursday’s BIG10 matchup between Washington and Illinois. Let’s dive right in to why you need to take this square in a PrizePicks lineup on Thursday. 

Keaton Wagler's less than 2.5 3PTM square on PrizePicks is the best square on the app for Thursday night's home matchup against Washington. The freshman guard is coming off a historic 46-point explosion at Purdue, where he drained a school-record 9 threes on 11 attempts in an 88-82 upset of the No. 4 Boilermakers. That performance—13-17 FG overall—was a clear career outlier, inflating his season averages and creating a classic sell-high spot. Prior to that game, Wagler was hovering around 2-3 made threes per contest on solid but unspectacular volume. Outliers like 9-of-11 from deep often lead to immediate regression, especially for a freshman still adjusting to Big Ten physicality. Opponents now have fresh tape, and Washington will prioritize running him off the line, contesting aggressively, and denying clean looks.

Washington's perimeter defense has been a bright spot in their 11-9 start under Danny Sprinkle, ranking in the top-80 nationally in opponent 3-point percentage (around 31.7%). They've shown marked improvement as the season progressed, tightening rotations and closeouts after early struggles. In their most recent game—a dominant 72-57 home win over Oregon on January 25—the Huskies completely stifled the Ducks' outside attack, holding them to just 3-of-15 from three (20%). Oregon managed only one triple in the first half and couldn't find rhythm against Washington's length and activity. Sprinkle's packs-the-paint style forces contested jumpers, and with bigs like Franck Kepnang and Hannes Steinbach protecting the rim, kick-outs become low-percentage heaves.

This is Illinois' first home game since the Purdue heroics, and while the State Farm Center crowd will be electric, the spotlight on Wagler could add pressure—freshmen often press after breakout nights, leading to forced shots or hesitation. Washington, desperate to snap road woes in conference play, will likely deploy athletic wings to hound him full-court and disrupt Illinois' spacing. The Huskies' physicality ranks among the Big Ten's best in deflections and contested shots, limiting open threes. Illinois may also shift toward interior looks with big men like David Mirkovic or Tomislav Ivisic, balancing the offense rather than force-feeding a hot-but-now-scouted shooter.

Game script favors fewer possessions overall: Both teams play at moderate tempos, and Washington's gritty style often bogs down opponents. Wagler's season-high volume came in a high-scoring road upset; expect fewer attempts (he's typically 5-8 per game outside the anomaly) and tougher contests here. At 2.5 3PTM, the less than offers excellent value in a great regression spot against an ascending perimeter defense.