Timberwolves vs Nuggets: How to Make Money Betting the NBA Playoffs on Monday

In Game 2 of the 2026 Western Conference First Round playoffs on Monday night at Ball Arena, the #6 Minnesota Timberwolves (+7.5) face the #3 Denver Nuggets, who lead the series 1-0 after a 116-105 victory in Game 1. While Denver looked sharp at home with Nikola Jokić posting 25 points, 13 rebounds, and 11 assists and Jamal Murray dropping 30 points (including a perfect 16-for-16 from the line), the Timberwolves showed enough fight—and possess the roster depth and defensive identity—to keep this one within single digits. Here’s why Minnesota covers the spread.

First, Minnesota’s defense remains elite and built to neutralize Denver’s stars. Rudy Gobert was outstanding in Game 1, anchoring the paint and battling Jokić effectively despite the Serbian center’s stat line. Jaden McDaniels brings switchability that can harass Murray or Aaron Gordon, limiting easy looks. The Wolves’ regular-season defensive rating was among the league’s best, and in the playoffs they’ve already shown the ability to build leads (they were up by 12 points in Game 1). Expect adjustments: more help rotations, physicality on Jokić, and forcing Murray into tougher mid-range shots. Peyton Watson’s absence (hamstring) for Denver thins their wing depth, giving Minnesota’s versatile defenders even more room to operate.

Offensively, Anthony Edwards is the X-factor. He played 38 minutes on a balky knee in Game 1 for 22 points and looked fatigued late, but he reported feeling strong afterward. In a must-cover spot, the two-time All-Star will explode for 30+ points, attacking the rim and drawing fouls. Julius Randle and Naz Reid give Minnesota a dynamic frontcourt duo that can stretch the floor and crash the glass against Jokić and Gordon—something they didn’t fully exploit in Game 1. Mike Conley will run a steady half-court attack, while the bench—Donte DiVincenzo, Ayo Dosunmu (who scored 14 points off the bench in Game 1), and Terrence Shannon Jr.—provides scoring bursts and defensive energy that wore down Denver’s rotation late in the opener.

Denver is coming off a dominant home win and boasts home-court supremacy (strong recent streak at Ball Arena), but history and trends favor a closer contest. The Nuggets shot well in Game 1 and benefited from Murray’s free-throw clinic; regression is likely. Minnesota pushed the pace at times and forced Denver into tough shots. With the series on the line and the Timberwolves’ roster—built around Edwards, Gobert, McDaniels, Randle, Reid, DiVincenzo, Dosunmu, and Conley—fully healthy and motivated, expect them to hang tough, trade blows, and lose by 4-7 points at worst.

The +7.5 line disrespects Minnesota’s playoff resilience and defensive edge. The Timberwolves won’t steal the win in Denver, but they’ll cover—and set up a hostile Game 3 back home. Take Minnesota +7.5 with confidence. They cover on the road after losing by 11 in game one. I’ll meet you at the cash counter when the Timberwolves cover on Monday night.