If you’ve followed my content over the years, you know I’m a sucker for taking the nastiest bets and PrizePicks squares possible. The De'Von Achane less than 0.5 rush + receiving TDs square on PrizePicks is some of my best work. In the Monday Night Football showdown against the Pittsburgh Steelers, everyone is backing the speedy Dolphins running back to score, or go off on the ground. His rushing yards square is the most popular square on the PrizePicks app for MNF.  Achane has been a fantasy force this season with 11 total touchdowns through 13 games, including seven on the ground and four through the air, but his production has come against weaker defenses. Although the Steelers’ defense has looked better in recent years, and they are coming off allowing 200+ rushing yards to the Ravens, this defense plays their best when the lights are bright on primetime.  Facing Pittsburgh's typically stingy unit should limit a banged-up Achane on MNF.

Start with the Steelers' defense against running backs: They've surrendered just six total touchdowns to the position all year—five rushing and one receiving—across 13 contests, averaging a minuscule 0.46 per game. This bend-but-don't-break approach ranks them among the league's elite in limiting scores, even as they allow a respectable 125 rushing yards per game. Their red-zone efficiency has been impressive as well, holding opponents to touchdowns on just 52.08% of trips inside the 20, good for seventh in the NFL. Pittsburgh's front seven excels at forcing field goals or turnovers in tight spaces, neutralizing speedsters like Achane who thrive on chunk plays but struggle in condensed fields.

Achane's role in Miami's backfield adds another layer of doubt. While he commands a healthy 75% snap share and leads the team with 193 carries for 1,126 yards, the Dolphins' committee approach often sees Jaylen Wright or even Ollie Gordon poach goal-line work. Wright, coming off the best game of his career, should get plenty of carries once again today, especially in colder weather where Miami might lean on power over finesse. Achane has also been banged up in recent weeks, don’t be surprised if the Dolphins’ limit his workout a tad in the cold conditions.

Achane's receiving upside—55 catches for 383 yards—is muted here too; the Steelers have allowed only one receiving score to backs all year, funneling production to perimeter threats like Malik Washington and Jaylen Waddle, who should draw plenty of looks from Tua Tagovailoa in a losing gamescript.

Game script favors this outcome as well. Pittsburgh's home-field edge in frigid December conditions (forecasts hover around 30 degrees with wind) could force a grind-it-out affair, where Miami's offense—already inconsistent on the road—stalls short of paydirt. Achane's recent rib injury, which sidelined him briefly last week, might limit his explosiveness or prompt caution near the goal line. It also doesn’t hurt that the total has dropped from 44.5 to 42.5, either. Low totals are typically great spots for PrizePicks touchdown fades. 

In games against top-10 red-zone defenses like Pittsburgh's, Achane has gone touchdown-less in three of four similar spots this season, relying on volume over efficiency. With Miami projected for around 20 points in a low-total game (O/U 42.5), this is the perfect spot to fade the Dolphins’ stud running back. This isn't about fading Achane's talent; he’s one of the most talented running backs in the league. It's about exploiting a matchup where yards could come cheap, but finding paydirt might be rare. Lock in the less than 0.5 TD square for a high-confidence play that cashes as Miami settles for plenty of field goals.