It feels like yesterday when the Dolphins fired their GM and everyone thought McDaniels was next on the chopping block. Fast forward a couple weeks, and the Dolphins have won four games in a row. A win on MNF tonight will surprisingly bring Miami back to .500 on the season, a feat that looked impossible not too long ago. Aaron Rodgers and the Steelers stand in their way of potentially getting their name thrown around in the playoff conversation… will Pittsburgh hand Miami their first loss in six weeks?

These teams might both be in the AFC, but they don’t play very frequently. The Dolphins beat the Steelers the last time they faced off back in 2022, so recent history is pretty irrelevant when trying to handicap this one. What you can handicap is effort and motivation, and the Steelers, along with their coach, are still trying to prove to their fanbase that they are a playoff team. Right now, they are the only team in the AFC North above .500. There is still a lot of season left, but a win tonight would help cement their spot in the postseason. 

The Steelers’ faithful are tired of Mike Tomlin and want to see something different than a first round playoff exit every season. A win tonight would go a long way in proving  Aaron Rodgers’ signing to be the right move, and I’m willing to bet they get it done in Pittsburgh on Monday night. Even without TJ Watt, this Steelers defense has a great opportunity to go out there and win them a football game. They are fresh off one of their better performances of the season, holding the Ravens to 22 points in a big divisional win. Although the Steelers’ faithful still isn’t sold, Aaron Rodgers has a solid matchup at home tonight against an extremely average secondary. 

It’s not just Aaron Rodgers’ who has the great MNF matchup. Miami has one of the worst rush defenses in the NFL. They give up 132 yards/game on the ground, the sixth-worst unit in the league. Expect a heavy dose of both Jaylen Warren and Kenneth Gainwell in this one, maybe even some Kaleb Johnson. In what is expected to be a very cold night, whoever dominates the ground game will have a serious advantage on MNF. De’Von Achane is playing but banged up, and Jaylen Wright just went off for over 100 yards last week. While the public thinks they feast, I’m sketched out about this Dolphins’ backfield in this matchup tonight.

With the TJ Watt injury news, the public is hammering Miami to win their fifth straight game, and to cover the +3 spread. Nearly 32% of bets are backing the Dolphins to win this game outright, and more than 54% of the bets are backing them to cover the spread. I’d consider that a public dog, and we know what happens to those, especially in primetime. 

After four straight wins, the Dolphins look like the “easy” book play for this MNF game. Your buddy probably already texted “I’ll take Tua getting a field goal” in your gambling groupchat. Unfortunately, that’s a recipe for a losing wager. Nobody wants to lay the Steelers on the spread. As a contrarian, I am ecstatic getting to bet on Aaron Rodgers and this gritty Pittsburgh team to win by more than three points on Monday night. Let’s fade the public underdog, and back Mike Tomlin to get another massive primetime win, once again silencing his haters and doubters.