The total in the MNF matchup between the Texans and the Steelers is extremely low. It has actually dropped from 39.5 to 38.5, the lowest total on Wildcard Weekend by far. This game feels like it’s going to be a snoozefest, and I have a PrizePicks square that compliments this low-scoring affair perfectly…

In the AFC Wild Card matchup between the Houston Texans and Pittsburgh Steelers, PrizePicks has CJ Stroud's Pass + Rush + Receiving TDs line set at 1.5. At first glance, the “more than” looks like free money. Stroud is a Pro Bowl-caliber quarterback leading a talented Texans offense with an elite weapon in Nico Collins. He's capable of lighting up scoreboards, and in a playoff spot, you'd expect him to account for at least two touchdowns. That's exactly why this screams square play—the public will hammer the over, thinking it's too easy. But it can't be that easy. PrizePicks doesn’t hand out gifts, especially in the playoffs.

The biggest red flag is the shockingly low game total, sitting at 38.5 across most books—one of the lowest playoff totals in recent memory. When sportsbooks project fewer than 40 combined points, it signals a grind-it-out, low-scoring game with limited explosive plays. Fewer possessions, more punts, and conservative play-calling all cap touchdown opportunities. In games with totals this low, quarterbacks routinely finish with one or zero passing scores. Stroud needing two total TDs (passing or rushing) becomes a tall order when the entire game might feature only three or four total touchdowns combined. Historical playoff unders hit at a high rate in sub-40 totals, as defenses elevate and points come at a premium.

This season, Stroud threw just 19 passing touchdowns across the regular season, averaging about 1.1 per game, with only one rushing score. That's not the high-volume TD machine some remember from his rookie year. Facing the Steelers only compounds the issue. Pittsburgh's defense ranked solidly in points allowed (around 22.8 per game) and excels at home in January, where cold weather at Acrisure Stadium often disrupts passing attacks. Wind, potential precipitation, and a ferocious pass rush led by T.J. Watt can force quick throws, sacks, or turnovers—none of which lead to red-zone trips or scores. Even though this Steelers defense hasn’t been as dominant this year compared to recent seasons, I trust Mike Tomlin to get the most out of them on the biggest of stages in this spot.

Stroud's talent and the Texans being favored by 3 points make multiple touchdowns seem inevitable, but I want to fade that angle. Public bettors see the low line and think "easy cash," especially considering how well he played at the end of the season. A playoff road game against a stingy defense in a low-total environment screams “less than” to my contrarian brain. The gamescript could favor the run if Houston builds a lead, eating clock and limiting Stroud's attempts. Or, if Pittsburgh controls possession with their ground game and some Aaron Rodgers magic, the Texans get fewer chances altogether.

Stroud's lone rushing score this year was an outlier. Squares are going to load up on the “more than” for this square, thinking the Steelers get blown out on MNF. Fade the public here; the “less than” 1.5 total TDs is the sharp play in what projects to be a defensive battle. The Texans might win, but if they do, it’s going to be because of their elite defense, not because of Stroud’s dominance.