As many of you probably know, I am not the biggest fan of Shedeur Sanders. I faded him frequently in college, and laughed when he plummeted down the NFL draft boards. Well, if there’s anything I’ve learned about betting over the years, it’s that you must have a short memory, and you can’t pick favorites or hold grudges in this game. Shedeur might’ve been my enemy for years, but on Sunday afternoon, I will be his biggest fan…

The Cleveland Browns +3 is undoubtedly the sharpest spread on Sunday's NFL slate, screaming value in a spot where the line feels suspiciously tight. With the Steelers riding a three-game winning streak—including a gritty 29-24 upset over the Lions last week—and the Browns mired in a four-game skid, you'd expect Pittsburgh to be laying closer to 10 points in a meaningless game for the Browns. Cleveland's 3-12 record paints a picture of brutality, with offensive woes and defensive leaks allowing 23.7 points per game. Yet the spread hovers at a field goal, making the Steelers look like the "easiest" public play while the sharps sniff out the trap line. Rookie QB Shedeur Sanders, thrust into the starting role mid-season, should be getting a bigger cushion in this divisional matchup, but the oddsmakers aren't budging—hinting at underlying respect for a Browns' potential upset.

This screams ultimate letdown spot for Pittsburgh. Fresh off that high-stakes win in Detroit, where they survived a wild finish with penalties negating the Lions' potential game-winner, the Steelers (9-6) are primed for a flat performance. Mike Tomlin's squad has clinched a non-losing season and is looking like a shoe-in for the playoffs, but after grinding out three straight victories, fatigue and complacency could creep in against a desperate Browns team with nothing to lose. Pittsburgh's offense, averaging just 24.3 points, relies on a run-heavy approach that's vulnerable if Cleveland's front seven—led by Myles Garrett's pursuit of the sack record—disrupts early. Expect the Steelers to take their foot off the gas, especially on the road in a hostile Cleveland environment where they've split recent meetings.

Flip to Sanders, who looked solid in last week's 23-20 loss to the Bills, completing 20 of 29 passes (69%) for 157 yards, a touchdown, and showing improved decision-making despite two picks. It was a step forward for the rookie, flipping his troubling completion trend and evading pressure for key scrambles, including a 13-yard gain. With his job on the line, expect maximum effort from Sanders and company—he's hungry to prove he deserves the keys long-term, targeting weapons like Jerry Jeudy and Harold Fannin for chunk plays. Cleveland's offense has perked up under him, averaging 20 points in recent starts, enough to keep games close.

Public money is pounding the Steelers—73% of bets and 75% of cash at DraftKings—but the line hasn't ballooned from that opening number, a classic reverse-line movement signal that pros are fading the hype. Weather in Cleveland could turn sloppy, favoring a low-scoring grind where +3 shines. The Browns cover in a 21-20 nail-biter—grab the points before it tightens further.