Patriots vs Seahawks: The PrizePicks Square to Take in the Big Game

What a year it’s been for Sam Darnold. After the Vikings moved on from the veteran QB in the offseason, he took his next team to the Super Bowl. At one point, it didn’t look like Darnold would be a starting quarterback in this league for long. His career didn’t get off to a hot start for the Jets, but after bouncing around for a couple seasons, it’s clear he’s found his new home in Seattle. What a great underdog story for Darnold. 

What if I told you that one of my favorite PrizePicks squares for the Super Bowl was actually fading Sam Darnold? Would you think I am crazy, especially after that introduction gassing him up? Well, unfortunately one of my favorite plays for this big game does involve fading Darnold, but it’s probably not what you were thinking…

Darnold’s 2025 regular season rushing output was minimal, totaling just 95 yards across 17 games for an average of roughly 5.6 yards per contest. That ranks among the lowest for starting quarterbacks, reflecting a clear shift in his playing style with the Seahawks. After occasional scrambles in prior years, Darnold has become almost exclusively a pocket passer in Seattle’s offense, rarely taking off unless absolutely forced. His season included multiple games with zero or negative rushing yards due to sacks, and he never exceeded 15 yards in any single outing.

The Seahawks’ scheme further suppresses his rushing opportunities. With Kenneth Walker III as a workhorse back and a receiving corps loaded with threats like Jaxon Smith-Njigba, offensive coordinator Klint Kubiak designs plays to get the ball out quickly and let playmakers work after the catch. Designed QB runs are virtually nonexistent, and Darnold has shown discipline in sliding or throwing the ball away rather than risking hits on scrambles. Throughout the playoffs leading into the Super Bowl, this trend continued, with Darnold posting single-digit rushing totals in each game as Seattle protected its quarterback and leaned on balanced attack.

Facing the Patriots adds another significant barrier. New England’s defense, stout all season and dominant in the playoffs, excels at containing quarterbacks in the pocket. They rank near the top of the league in fewest quarterback rushing yards allowed, using disciplined edge rushers and linebacker spies to eliminate escape lanes. In high-stakes games, they’ve repeatedly forced pocket passers to stay put, generating pressure that often results in sacks rather than positive scrambles.

Super Bowl context amplifies caution for Darnold. With a championship on the line, coaches prioritize quarterback protection above all, discouraging unnecessary runs that risk injury or turnovers. Sacks won’t count against rushing totals, but the Patriots’ pass rush is capable of limiting any Darnold scrambles with plenty of above-average linebackers spying the veteran QB. Game script projections also favor low rushing volume. Seattle enters as a slight favorite, and a lead would trigger clock-killing runs from Walker rather than keeper options. Even in a close game, the Seahawks’ preference for quick-rhythm passing limits Darnold’s chances to tuck and run. Darnold finishing with less than 5.5 rushing yards looks like one of the sharper plays on the board.