Patriots vs Seahawks: The Cheekiest PrizePicks Square to Take for the Big Game

Super Bowl LX, between the New England Patriots and the Seattle Seahawks, is a highly anticipated rematch of Super Bowl XLIX. On PrizePicks, Patriots punter Bryce Baringer is currently sitting at 4 punts, and at first glance, the "more than" looks like free money. Baringer has been a busy man in the playoffs, booting 16 punts across the Patriots' last two games (Divisional and AFC Championship rounds)—an average of 8 per contest. That volume stems from tough, low-scoring battles, including a snowy AFC title game against the Broncos where the offense struggled to sustain drives and Baringer was flipping the field constantly. Recency bias screams "smash the more," but it’s never that easy. This is a textbook “trap” spot, and the sharp play is the less than 4.

First and foremost, this game projects to be much closer than the public expects. The Seahawks opened as 4.5-point favorites with a total around 45.5, but oddsmakers see value on the Patriots covering or even pulling the upset. New England has been battle-tested through the playoffs, and under head coach Mike Vrabel, they've embraced an aggressive analytics-driven approach. The Patriots ranked among the league's most aggressive teams on fourth down this season, frequently going for it in midfield territory rather than punting. Those decisions reduce punting opportunities significantly—why trot Baringer out around the 50 when you trust your offense to convert? In a tight Super Bowl script where the Patriots keep pace or take a lead, sustained drives, touchdowns, and clock management mean fewer three-and-outs and far fewer punts.

If the Patriots cover the spread or win outright—as sharp money is starting to suggest—they'll dictate possession with efficient offense, not quick, stalling drives. More scoring drives equal more points and less need for Baringer to flip the field. The Seahawks' defense is strong, but New England's attack has shown it can move the ball against top units when protected and balanced. A competitive game favors longer possessions, especially if the Patriots lean on their run game or convert in plus territory.

Now, the public angle makes this an absolute dream fade. Over 24,000 people have already taken Baringer's square on PrizePicks, and the overwhelming majority are on the "more than." Why? Recency from those 16 playoff punts, plus the narrative that the Seahawks will dominate, force the Patriots into obvious passing downs, and turn this into a blowout. Everyone loves Seattle to win and cover—social media, talking heads, casual bettors—all riding the Seahawks hype train. But when the public is this lopsided on a play tied directly to game script, fading them provides an edge. If the Patriots hang around or lead, Baringer's leg gets a rest.

League-wide punting is at record lows this season due to fourth-down aggression and rule changes limiting return yards, making coaches even bolder. Super Bowls often feature elite offenses producing longer drives and fewer total punts than regular playoff games. Levi's Stadium conditions should be clean—no snow to mess with the game like in the AFC Championship. And in a rematch of XLIX, expect the Patriots to play smart, controlled football rather than the chaotic, defense-heavy slogs of recent weeks. Fade the public, trust the game script, and take Baringer less than 4 punts.