Patriots vs Broncos: How to Make Money Betting on This NFL Conference Championship Game

We are blessed with two great NFL games this weekend. Enjoy the NFL while we still have it, because in a couple of weeks, it’ll be just NBA, CBB and NHL games. Let’s dive right into my favorite play in the first NFL Conference Championship game. 

The Patriots are down to -4.5 from -5.5 on the spread. I’m even seeing some -4 and -3 spreads hanging around some books. New England looks like the easiest bet of the weekend on paper. You’ll probably hear your buddies say “no shot Drake Maye loses to Jarrett Stidham on Sunday” multiple times. We all know that betting is simply not that easy. If it was, Las Vegas wouldn’t be nearly as shiny as it is. 

The Broncos might have a backup quarterback under center on Sunday, but I don’t think it’ll make much of a difference. I’m not a Bo Nix guy, and the downgrade to Jarrett Stidham will be insignificant. It’s the Broncos defense that’s going to keep them competitive in this game. This is by far the best secondary the Patriots will face this entire season. They got the job done against the Texans last week, but that was because of CJ Stroud throwing 4 interceptions, not because the Patriots’ offense thrived. 

The Broncos’ defense is elite at getting pressure without blitzing. This allowed them to not have to stack the box or send the house, still getting pressure on the quarterback but being able to sit back in the secondary and still defend the pass very effectively. This is something Drake Maye hasn’t had to deal with at all this season. Expect him to look the worst he’s looked all year against this nasty Broncos defensive unit on Sunday. To be fair, Maye really hasn’t looked that sharp this postseason. His defense has carried him in both games. 

Everyone is counting the Broncos out without Bo Nix under center. I’m just not seeing the drop-off in production, and Sean Payton is extremely confident in Stidham’s abilities. Give me the Broncos in the first half. If Drake Maye and the Patriots find their groove in this game, it won’t be until the second half. Expect them to struggle early on against Pat Surtain and this elite Broncos defense. You can still snag the Broncos at +2.5 on the 1H spread. I expect them to be winning at halftime, and like a sprinkle on their 1H moneyline as well.