NFL Conference Championship Weekend: The Best PrizePicks Square to Take on Sunday

This is easily the best defense Drake Maye will face all season. Denver ranks top-3 in pass defense DVOA, top-5 in EPA per dropback allowed, and they allow the fewest passing touchdowns per game to opposing quarterbacks this season. They generate pressure at one of the highest rates in the league without blitzing, which disrupts timing and forces checkdowns or rushed throws. Pat Surtain is the best cornerback in football—elite in man coverage, rarely gives up separation, and routinely erases No. 1 receivers. The Patriots don’t have a wideout who can consistently win against him, so Maye’s deep shots and red-zone looks will be limited.

New England has faced one of the easiest strengths of schedule so far this year, especially against the pass. This Broncos matchup is a major wake-up call—the first time their offense will see a truly elite, disruptive unit. The Patriots have leaned on a conservative, run-heavy approach in recent weeks, and Denver’s front forces exactly that script.

On the other side, Bo Nix is banged up and the Broncos will turn to their backup quarterback, who simply isn’t going to light up the scoreboard. That keeps the game total low, removes any need for the Patriots to play from behind much or air it out in a shootout, and favors a grind-it-out, low-possession game where New England can lean on the run and short passes.

Additional reasons that support Maye going less than 1.5 Passing TDs:

• Maye has gone less than 1.5 passing TDs in most of his starts against top-10 pass defenses in his career.

• Denver allows the lowest red-zone touchdown rate to quarterbacks this season.

• Late-January Denver weather can be brutal for passing (cold, potential wind/snow), further suppressing big plays.

• The Patriots’ offense ranks bottom-10 in red-zone touchdown rate and has shown a clear tendency to settle for field goals in tougher matchups.

• Pat Surtain is the best cornerback in the NFL. 

All of this points to a low-ceiling day for Maye through the air. Less than 1.5 passing touchdowns looks like the right side of a very favorable matchup for Denver’s defense. It’s not like the Broncos will be lighting up the scoreboard and the Patriots will have to drop 30 to compete in this game, either. Bo Nix is out, so you can expect a low-scoring affair in the first NFL Conference Championship game of the weekend.