Nationals vs Pirates: The Best Bet to Make for Tuesday’s MLB Slate

Tonight’s matchup at PNC Park features the Washington Nationals visiting the Pittsburgh Pirates in the second game of a four-game series, and the total is set at 9.5 runs for very good reason. This game screams offense, and the over should cash comfortably. The primary culprit on the mound is Nationals starter Miles Mikolas, who has been an absolute disaster to open the 2026 season.

Mikolas enters this start with a horrific 0-3 record and a bloated 12.41 ERA through just 12.1 innings. He’s allowed 22 hits, 19 earned runs, and a staggering five home runs while posting a 2.35 WHIP. His command is gone, his stuff is flat, and opposing lineups are teeing off on him early and often. In his three starts, he’s failed to complete five full innings in any of them. Facing a Pirates offense that just hung 16 runs on the Nats last night, Mikolas looks primed to get lit up again. PNC Park may play as a slight pitcher’s park overall, but bad pitching like this overrides park factors every time.

On the other side of the ball, the Nationals lineup is going to be hungry and motivated after getting absolutely destroyed 16-5 on Monday night. Paul Skenes and the Pirates offense humiliated Washington in front of a national audience. The Nats dropped to 7-9 and have now been outscored badly in recent games. Veterans like CJ Abrams, James Wood, and Luis García Jr. aren’t going to roll over—they’ll come out swinging aggressively, looking to get back in the win column and prove they can hang with a strong Pirates club. Washington’s offense has shown flashes of life this year, ranking respectably in runs scored per game, and they’ll be extra aggressive at the plate tonight.

But the offense isn’t stopping with the Nats. The Pirates are rolling. They scored 16 runs Monday, exploding for a 10-run sixth inning, and their lineup is clicking on all cylinders. Mitch Keller is a solid starter for Pittsburgh (1-0, 1.00 ERA), but even he has allowed traffic on the bases, and the Nats have enough pop to scratch across runs against him—especially with the hangover from last night’s embarrassment fueling them.

Other factors tilt toward the over as well. Both bullpens have shown vulnerability early in the season, and PNC Park’s weather tonight should be favorable—mild April temperatures in the mid-70s with light winds should help carry a few fly balls. MLB trends this year continue to favor higher-scoring games in the early season, and these two clubs have combined to go over the total in several recent outings.

Bottom line: Mikolas is a liability who simply cannot keep runs off the board right now, the Nats are playing with a massive chip on their shoulder after Monday’s beatdown, and the Pirates’ bats are red-hot. Expect crooked numbers on the scoreboard. Take the over 9.5 with confidence—this one is going to fly over the number tonight.