Denver vs Kansas City: Are the Chiefs Back?

People forget the Broncos were in the AFC Championship last year. They got there without their “star” young QB Bo Nix, who went down with an injury in the AFC Divisional round. The Chiefs, for the first time in years, missed the playoffs last year. This game tonight is the perfect buy-low, sell-high spot that nobody would’ve expected two years ago. 

For the first time in eons, the Chiefs are not getting hyped up at the beginning of the season. Andy Reid and Patrick Mahomes are going into this year with a chip on their shoulder, looking to remind people that they are the best head coach/QB duo in the NFL. On Monday night, they face a team that has beaten them each of the last three times they’ve played. Kansas City hasn’t beaten Denver since 2024. You don’t think Patrick Mahomes knows all this?

The Broncos are without a doubt the public underdog in this matchup. I’m seeing LeBron James on my feed telling me Denver is covering the +2.5 spread, a sight I never thought I’d see. Everyone is buying back into the Broncos after a great postseason run, but I’m selling this team that overperformed immensely in 2025. I need to see it again from Bo Nix, who is more of a system QB than a star that some are calling him. 

Typically Kansas City doesn’t get going until a month or so into the season, but they can’t afford another slow start. There have been too many doubters and non-believers calling out the Chiefs this offseason, and I’m sure Patrick Mahomes is more than ready to prove everyone wrong. Everyone is letting recency bias affect their opinions on both the Chiefs and Broncos. After one legacy run, everyone is banking on another playoff appearance from them. After years of domination and success from the Chiefs, the general public is out on the Chiefs after one down year. This is the perfect time to sell high on the Broncos and buy low on the Chiefs.

With the addition of Kenneth Walker, the Chiefs offense hasn’t looked this scary in years. Expect a constant, heavy dose of their new offensive piece on Monday, avoiding Pat Surtain as much as possible. As the Broncos continue to catch steam and garner more and more wagers, fade the public and back the Chiefs at their lowest point in years. This is a rare opportunity to bet on the Chiefs when they aren’t public, don’t waste it.