Cardinals vs Braves: The Best MLB Wager to Make on Tuesday

The Cardinals sit at +128 on the moneyline tonight against the Braves, who have been cold of late. Atlanta owns the better record and the sharper ERA from Martin Perez (6-4, 3.00), yet the underlying story tilts toward St. Louis in a spot where the market is overreacting.

Atlanta has lost six of its last seven games and scored just 17 runs across that stretch. The lineup that looked dangerous earlier in the year has gone ice cold on the road trip that just ended, and now it faces a left-hander in Matthew Liberatore. Perez is reliable, but he’s no Chris Sale. The Braves’ ace is sitting this one out, and the drop-off matters in a low-scoring environment.

Liberatore’s 5.56 ERA looks ugly, especially after he surrendered 18 earned runs in his last four starts. But he owns a 3.77 ERA in limited career work against Atlanta, and lefties have occasionally given the Braves trouble this season. More importantly, the Cardinals have shown they can win ugly. They’re 20-17 on the road and have a strong track record in one-run games. Their offense isn’t exploding, but it doesn’t need to explode to win when the opponent is also scuffling.

The total sits near nine, and both clubs have trended under recently. That setup favors the underdog that can scratch out three or four runs and lean on its bullpen. St. Louis has done exactly that multiple times this month.

At plus money, the Cardinals offer real value against a Braves team that’s reeling and missing its best starter. The numbers on paper might favor Atlanta, but Liberatore is due for a bounce back start. Luckily for him, he’s facing the Braves in the midst of a cold spell. I’ll meet you at the cash counter when the Cardinals shock the world and win outright on Tuesday.