Brewers @ Angels: How To Make Money Fading One of the Best Teams in Baseball

I’m fading one of the best teams in baseball on Friday night. Shane Drohan (5-4, 3.51 ERA) takes the ball for the first-place Milwaukee Brewers against Ryan Johnson (2-5, 7.34 ERA) and the last-place Los Angeles Angels at Angel Stadium. On paper this looks like a mismatch, and the moneyline reflects it with Milwaukee as a heavy favorite. That is exactly why the +1.5 offers value. 

Johnson has struggled this season, but home starts at Angel Stadium have given the Angels a better chance to keep games within striking distance. The Halos have shown they can scrape together enough offense—especially against left-handed pitching—to stay competitive for nine innings even when the starting pitching is shaky. Zach Neto, Jo Adell, and the middle of the order have the power to produce a couple of timely runs that keep the deficit manageable.

Drohan has pitched solidly overall, yet he is not an overpowering ace who routinely shuts down lineups for deep into games. The Brewers’ strong record and elite pitching staff create a public bias that inflates the spread. Taking the Angels with the 1.5-run cushion lets you fade the overreaction while still capitalizing on Milwaukee’s superior talent. 

In interleague matchups at Angel Stadium, underdogs with run support numbers like this frequently cover when the favorite fails to put the game away early. Expect a competitive contest that stays within a run or two for long stretches. The Angels +1.5 is the smart side to back. I’ll meet you at the cash counter when the Angels shock the world and keep this game close within a run.