A Battle in Baton Rouge: Deej's Best Bet for Texas vs. LSU

Two of college football’s biggest brands collide in Baton Rouge as the Texas Longhorns travel to Death Valley to take on the LSU Tigers. With both teams needing this win to improve their résumés, this game is very important for both squads to make the CFP.  

With LSU already having 3 losses, Lane Kiffin and the Tigers have to win out if they want any chance at a college football playoff appearance. The Tigers are currently (+165) to make the CFP, but with The Tigers closing out the regular season with Texas, Tennessee, and Arkansas, I wouldn't be surprised if they found a way to win out and cause some drama within the CFP Committee. 

 Texas is currently sitting at -340 to make the playoffs, they are likely in even with a loss to LSU, unless they lose to either Arkansas or Texas A&M, which I personally don't see happening.

With the LSU line varying from -4 to -5 depending on where you look, Vegas is clearly respecting the Tigers in this spot, and I have to agree with them. Although I can't confidently lay that many points with Sam Leavitt against this Texas defense, I do think the Tigers find a way to win and cover in this spot.

My favorite look in this game is the under. Why? Well, with LSU being a sizable favorite and Texas' team total sitting at just 20.5, juiced to the under, that leads me to believe the Tigers' defense is going to show up. Texas has scored over 20.5 points in every game this season except one (Week 4 at Tennessee). LSU is also coming off an embarrassing defensive performance in which they allowed 31 points to Alabama at home last Saturday.  I expect Lane to have his defense ready for redemption from last week.

Arch Manning has struggled on the road in SEC play over the past couple of seasons. While he put together a strong performance against Missouri last week, I expect those road struggles to resurface in Baton Rouge. Playing in Death Valley presents an entirely different challenge, and I have questions about how Manning will handle the pressure.

Adding to Texas' concerns, the Longhorns have dealt with significant travel complications ahead of this matchup. Earlier this afternoon, the FAA announced a temporary ban on flights taking off. Although the restriction has since been lifted and Texas will still be able to fly to Baton Rouge, the disruption has thrown the team's travel schedule off course. It's certainly not ideal preparation heading into one of the toughest road environments in college football.