What I Learned From Fading Duke Last Night

It’s hard for a guy like myself to accept it, but occasionally, there really are “free money glitches” as the kids say.

 

In case you missed it - Steak had a great rant on yesterday's Board Review about the Duke vs NC State game:

 

Now naturally, a few hours later, he not only bet NC State on the spread, but also their ML. This guy talked for minutes about how sports betting is sometimes as easy as clicking Duke and didn’t do it. Why? I’ll tell you why - because it felt TOO easy. How stupid is that? We both decided not to bet Duke because it felt like the easy button to press. And instead, we bet against Duke.

 

That’s the dark side of being a “contrarian” bettor. You are so determined to take the grossest, most uncomfortable plays on the board, that you psych yourself out and avoid the “easy” buttons. Meanwhile your entire group chat is celebrating their no sweat winner.

 

Sometimes really good basketball teams just continue to play really good basketball. I remember UConn a few years ago being a juggernaut that was the "chalk" pick in everyones bracket to win it all. They did. We’ve also seen it in sports like golf with Scottie Scheffler. As these dominant teams and players arise, for some stupid reason my brain starts immediately trying to think of when the right time to fade them is. I need this to stop.

 

Sports betting is a mind fuck. Throughout my 20’s I mostly just bet on team A to beat team B. I never really cared much about the spread. Never said things like "the line looks short" or "that's a lot of respsect". I either bet on a favorite to win and cover, or faded them by taking the underdog.

 

Then in my 30’s I became a contrarian bettor. Fading the public was great when it worked. But now I’ve realized that the worst part is that it actually did work. And it worked for quite a few years. Being a successful contrarian bettor was a very fun experience, but it may have ruined me. Now I, like Steak, am constantly in my own head. 

 

Rather than assessing if team A will beat team B and cover the spread that Vegas sets, I focus more on what bets feel “easy” and try to avoid them. Now to be fair - I have started taking many more “square” plays than I did five years ago, but it’s the fact that I even talk about and consider a play being square that still makes me somewhat apprehensive on pressing the button.

 

Sports betting evolves. We need to evolve. Things that worked in the past don’t always work in the present. Getting cute and trying to fade the best basketball team in the country on a Monday night is not fun. The desire to be the smartest guy in the room with the only one holding a ticket on the contrarian side just to say “I told ya so!” is fading.

 

In closing, I’d like to congratulate anyone that bet on Duke last night. You didn’t overthink it, and I truly admire that.

 

I just want winners - even the easy ones.