Two NBA Play-In Best Bets - Wednesday April 15

We aren't in the dog days quite yet. The NBA Playoffs return again tonight (kind of) with two more play-in games today after a great slate of games yesterday, starting off with the 7-8 matchup in the East (Magic vs 76ers) followed by the 9-10 matchup in the West (Warriors vs Clippers).

Yesterday's games were cinema. The Hornets edgemaxxed the Heat in a thriller in the first game, winning by 1 in OT off a LaMelo game-winning layup and an electric Miles Bridges dunk to seal the game as time was expiring. Then in the West, my bitchass Suns choked yet another game in the 4th quarter and shot tour dates from three to give the upstart underdog Trail Blazers a spot in the first-round against the Spurs. Deni Avdija is a fkn problem and that team may give the Spurs a run for their coin.

This first game is the classic textbook definition of "who wants it less?" Both of these teams have been massive disappointments after pre-season expectations assuredly had both these teams in better spots than the play-in: The Magic and the 76ers. It has been ABSOLUTE HELL to bet on either of these shit teams all year and I am not running to the counter to take either side.

Instead, we're taking the Under 224.5. Not only did both games soar over their totals yesterday, the Magic have been a solid defensive team all year. And although the Sixers definitely lose some defensive effeciency without Embiid roaming the paint, the Magic have consistenly been inconsistent in scoring this season and Embiid's absence will force Philadelphia to rely on a more perimeter-oriented attack, which Orlando will be ready for. 

Next game: Warriors at Clippers. I've been pretty high on the Clippers as I liked their roster a lot after the James Harden trade and thought Garland would be able to work really well at point with Kawhi and Mathurin could thrive as a third-scorer behind those two. The issue with the Clippers has also been their incosistency with handling teams they are clearly better than. They've played up to the best teams in the league and let worse teams hang around and even beat them. 

The Warriors aren't as good as the Clippers. Straight up. The roster talent is extremly limited after Curry and the loss of Jimmy Butler has catapulted players that would not be in major play-making positions on most teams into big minute positions. When Curry has been healthy he has carried this team in most games. But the Warriors have been one of the scrappiest teams all year, as Steve Kerr has gotten more out of this roster than most coaches would. A ton of very impressive wins while Curry was out. 

I think the Warriors can keep it within the number here. This team is absolutely different with Curry on the floor, and the Clippers inability to put worse teams away combined with Kerr's elite coaching to squeeze as much as possible out of the rest of the roster tells me that they can cover +5.5 at the very least and maybe even win.