This PrizePicks NBA 3-Man is Turning Green

Getting nice? Never heard of her. It has been tough sledding out here in the Association for your boy. Gone are the days where I was in flow state ripping off multiple green PrizePicks slips a week in the NBA like last season. I yearn for that. I miss the DMs begging to see the slips daily and bitching at me whenever they wouldn't hit. Now everything is dry. People don't even DM me anymore outside of the usual haters ... they just feel bad.

The last slip I hit was a full-fade dunk contest 4-man. Deadass. And does that even count?!

The PP account is going dry. I had so much coin in my account and that balance has drastically decreased. It's actually embarrasing. And it needs to end. We get back to green starting tonight. It's March. St. Pattys Day (best holiday of the year) is right around the corner. MANIFEST GREEN.

This is how we get right. The last week or so, I have dived really deep into props.cash and labbed a little too hard factoring in shit that does not matter at all like 0 days rest and other bullshit. This slip is straight to the point.

Quickley: This is a pure fade of the Dallas Mavericks defense. Since the All-Star Break, every single point guard that has played the Mavs has gone over their Fantasy Score, going over their line by an average of 6 fantasy points per contest. The Mavs rank 29th in the league vs PG fantasy score on the year, and Quickley averages 32 minutes/game and should get ample oppurtunity to take advantage. This spread worries me a bit but the Mavs have been competitive in both games since Flagg has been back (at Magic, at Celtics). He is questionable but Dallas has not played in two days and he did play both games on a back-to-back, getting 30+ mins in the second game.

Tre Johnson: 3PTA squares have been one of the few bright spots for me in NBA prop betting this year. Finding good props.cash labbage for more than props on 3PTAs has seemingly worked more than most other stat categories and I want to keep diving into that. Tre Johnson is known for being a 3-point shooter, and the Pelicans poor defense vs 3PT SGs gives him a good chance to cash this square today. Johnson has cashed his 3PTA square in 7/9 games vs Bottom 5 DvPs for 3PTA this season (Pelicans: 29th). The Pelicans also are bottom ten in the league in transition defense and spot up defense vs SGs, where 40% of Johnson's points have come this year. When Johnson has played a poor transition defense with an overall bottom 5 DvP for 3PTA, Johnson is 2/2 on the season in cashing his 3PTA.


Worried about his shooting volume with Tre Young? He just shot nine threes in their last game vs Utah, where all of these defensive advantages for Johnson were also in play (see below)

Clingan: Now for my favorite square of the slip. Clingan PR. The Pacers have been absolute horseshit vs centers this season, ranking 27th vs Center PR this season. While the last 10 games has been about 50/50 for centers cashing their PR, this has mostly been due to the Pacers getting blown out vs better competition. Not only are the Trail Blazers a bit of an easier opponent (especially without Deni who is out again), Siakam, Nembhard and Nesmith are all game-time decisions for Indiana, but I would expect all three to play after getting two days rest and playing both games of a back-to-back in LA.

My favorite cap for this square is how Clingan has produced this season vs Bottom 5 DvPs. He hasn't gone under this line once in six games. Six for six. This includes 38 PR vs Sacremento on January 18 and 34 PR vs Washington on January 27. To give even more context into this prop ... Clingan is the best offensive rebounder in the league. Almost 50% of his points comes off offensive rebounds and Pick n Rolls, where Indiana ranks 21st and 30th respectively. Indiana also ranks 19th and 30th in offensive and defensive rebounding vs centers respectively. This should be a Clingan masterclass for the Blazers down low in a (hopefully ...  please God) tight game. 

This is the slip. It has to be. We end the bullshit today. Sunday March 8 is the day we will write down in the history books as the day we righted the ship. 

Lets get nice.